contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


capman-a-good-q4-result-supported-by-fair-value-changes-and-carried-interest-nordea

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

CapMan is an investment company. The vision is to be a long-term owner and create added value for the shareholders in the long term. CapMan mainly invests in medium-sized unlisted companies, properties and infrastructure facilities around the Nordic market. Furthermore, the company offers asset management, purchasing activities as well as analysis, reporting and back office services. CapMan was founded in 1989 and its headquarters are in Helsinki, Finland.

I bought this at the 2020 COVID lows. It was being hyped here and there. I did some digging and bought it. Well, dividends have certainly come in, but it seems to be quite a laggard. The valuation just won’t rise, no matter what. Like many others, I’m also puzzled by the way management is being turned into millionaires. Selling this year is starting to look likely. I’ll keep following it for now, though.

Is a new buyout vintage expected from CapMan, or did the previous one go so poorly that a successor isn’t being raised? It’s likely the 2020 vintage, and the TVPI hasn’t exactly developed well, staying close to 1x?

Thanks again for the excellent response, Sauli! It’s probably realistic to view the target sizes of all flagship funds with a degree of caution. Such amounts of money aren’t raised from Finland, so they would need to succeed in attracting large foreign tickets from either completely new investors or get existing ones to significantly increase their investment size for the next funds. In this market environment, even raising the previous fund size is a good performance, so it’s a pity that the group’s cost level isn’t adjusted to the current earnings flow so that the management side alone could generate profit for shareholders. As I understand it, the issue hasn’t really been that “investment-like” costs for something new have been hindering profitability, but rather a chronically high cost level in basic operations year after year.

I’m reflecting on that back-of-the-envelope sketch Sauli scribbled nearly 3 years ago about how the company could perform while striving towards the new set targets. If I remember correctly, the targets for 10 billion AUM etc. were introduced around then. My own latest additions were also timed around then. Looking back, I must say that CapMan has definitely been one of the clear underperformers in my portfolio during that period. The current CEO also started in 2023. I’m not saying, nor do I believe, that Pia has much to do with this underperformance, but my own experiences with the company are starting to be such that this mill doesn’t grind wealth for anyone but a small group. Furthermore, looking back, I consider Jokke’s move “aside” to become Chairman of the Board mainly as a sleight of hand, where the new CEO gets to come in front of the camera to explain why things aren’t getting off the ground. Personally, I am actively looking for an opportunity to exit at the best possible price. My faith and trust in the company have gone with the latest report. I won’t stay around waiting for more corporate restructurings or any other magic tricks.

Below is an image from the Q4 result material:  Source: https://capman.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/CapMan-Q4-2025-presentation.pdf The so-called spearhead funds: Nordic Real Estate IV: target EUR 750m (the predecessor was, I believe, ~~500m) Dasos 4: target ~EUR 700m (exact size of the predecessor is not precisely known) Infra 3: as I understand it, target EUR 700-800m (predecessor EUR 375m) CAERUS 8: I don’t know the exact target; what’s probably most important here is that CAERUS successfully returns to the fundraising market after a longer hiatus. Guess for the size is EUR 300-400m. In addition to these, the intention is to raise capital for smaller PE funds (Nest, Special Situations, etc.) as well as open-ended real estate funds. However, those spearhead funds are the decisive factor. To @Lisko1’s question regarding what we expect from these: overall, we forecast successful fundraising, and net AUM should grow by more than a billion per year in '26 & '27. This requires that those spearhead funds reach roughly their target sizes. Then to @hapankorppu’s question: what happens if fundraising is delayed again? In the closed-end fund business, delayed fundraising manifests with a lag. In practice, if fundraising doesn’t gain traction, the underlying AUM “ages” and gets closer to maturity year by year. When old AUM is leaking out at the same time, it buries a portion of the new AUM under it => earnings leverage weakens. This effect is, of course, not tied to any single year, but the longer fundraising is delayed, the more it eats away at future earnings potential. Another reason why 2026 must be a success relates to the company’s strategy and its credibility. The market situation has already started to ease, and it can no longer be used as a full excuse. Yes, a challenging market can slow down fundraising and prolong processes, but there needs to be steady progress. CapMan states that their funds’ track records are good; somehow, a high-quality manager should be able to raise capital even in a slightly more challenging market. In Q4, the first closing was made for Dasos 4 and an anchor investor was secured for NRE 4, meaning they have finally gotten off the starting blocks.

I was left thinking about Pia’s interview, as you returned to this “light at the end of the tunnel” statement regarding the company’s outlook. I have noted a couple of times that 2026 is now the moment of truth, and failure there would lead to a clear weakening of the investment case.  Pia’s answer was a bit indirect, but I interpreted it to mean that the situation hasn’t essentially changed; we are in the tunnel and light is still visible. My own understanding is currently so incomplete that I would like someone to hammer into my head how or why the situation would be different if, in Q4 2026, we are still in the tunnel and light is still visible? What if the market really performs worse than anticipated?

Thanks for the great explanation!  I think I’ll say like Selänne: one more year..

CapMan

CapMan’s Q4 fee income of EUR 16.7m grew 25% y/y and was 10% ahead of our estimate of EUR 15.2m. Fee profit of EUR 0.9m grew by 124% y/y and but came below our estimate of EUR 1.6m. Driven by...

CapMan’s Q4 fee income of EUR 16.7m grew 25% y/y and was 10% ahead of our estimate of EUR 15.2m. Fee profit of EUR 0.9m grew by 124% y/y and but came below our estimate of EUR 1.6m. Driven by better-than-expected fair value changes (EUR 3.1m vs. NDAe EUR 1.9m) and stronger net carried interest bookings (EUR 2.7m vs. NDAe EUR 1.7m) group level adjusted EBIT of EUR 6.0m came above our estimate of EUR 5.2m. AuM grew to EUR 7.2bn (+19% y/y), which was in line with our estimate. CapMan proposes a dividend of EUR 0.12 per share for 2025 (NDAe: EUR 0.12) and the company expects AuM and fee profit to improve in 2026. Taken together, and reflecting slight  softness in fee profit (which we find was driven by higher-than-expected costs) we expect a neutral or slightly negative share price reaction today.