contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  createdAt
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
    forum {
      threadUrl
    }
    defaultInstrument {
      symbol
      id
    }
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  createdAt
  changedAt
  isPremium
  authors {
    __typename
    name
    pageUrl
    id
  }
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    id
  }
  tags {
    name
    id
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
    videoEmbedUrl(location: "inderes")
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
    videoEmbedUrl(location: "inderes")
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        threadUrl
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        symbol
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
      researchContentUrl
      researchContent {
        title
        lang
        pdfUrl
        relatedContent {
          __typename
          ...PublishingDetails
          ...Reactions
          id
        }
        content {
          title
          lang
          htmlBody
          publishedAt
          createdAt
          changedAt
          isOutdated
          isPremium
        }
      }
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

changedAt

CapMan is an investment company. The vision is to be a long-term owner and create added value for the shareholders in the long term. CapMan mainly invests in medium-sized unlisted companies, properties and infrastructure facilities around the Nordic market. Furthermore, the company offers asset management, purchasing activities as well as analysis, reporting and back office services. CapMan was founded in 1989 and its headquarters are in Helsinki, Finland.

Below is data from an extensive report ( CapMan laaja raportti: Skaalautumisen vuoro - Inderes ):  When looking purely at the personnel expenses visible on the income statement, CapMan doesn’t really stand out from the crowd. However, it is worth noting that CapMan’s investment teams receive a significant portion of carried interest (which does not appear on the group’s income statement), and in addition, the teams own significant minority stakes in their own businesses (which appears further down on the income statement). While similar structures exist elsewhere (e.g., at Evli and Taaleri), these structures are indeed very attractive to the teams at CapMan, and when everything is added up, CapMan certainly wins that compensation comparison. Of course, it’s good to keep in mind that this is partly comparing apples and oranges. On the alternatives side, investment professionals are on average clearly more expensive than on the listed side, especially if they can demonstrate a track record.

Is the labor cost (including bonuses, etc.) per person at CapMan in the same ballpark as the peer companies you mentioned, Sauli?

I share your concerns regarding the realization of that cost efficiency. It is worth remembering that we have seen very different operating leverages in the sector in recent years. In asset management, Evli has been bringing almost 100% of its growth to the bottom line over the last 6–7 years. During its golden years, eQ brought ~70% of its profit to the bottom line. For Titanium, the ratio was at its peak over 90% for several years. At Taaleri, the ratio in asset management was systematically poor, and the operating leverage never really materialized. When looking at the sector as a whole, a 50% ratio is certainly not a tall order if revenue is growing rapidly. On average, operating leverage in the sector is high because the cost structure is, at the end of the day, very fixed. We have an estimate of roughly ~50% for CapMan, so in this sense, the bar is not set particularly high.

I wasn’t convinced by Pia’s comments regarding cost scalability. Pia spoke about support functions/the platform, which are likely a small portion of the expenses in euro terms (my understanding was that these account for 25% of the headcount, but they don’t receive high salaries or bonuses, so I would assume a much smaller portion of the cost mass is there). The major cost items likely relate to the compensation of the highly paid investment teams, management, and their bonuses; regarding those, the descriptions of scalability weren’t convincing when taking history into account.

Great challenge!  If we start with why the view changed now, I have probably been saying for 1.5 years that CapMan is cheap if the targeted profit improvement comes through. What does this profit improvement require? It requires success in the largest fundraising cycle in the company’s history. The company is currently raising capital for all its core strategies. In addition to this, the company must of course succeed in cost control, but in my opinion, this is the smaller challenge, and the question is mainly about the ratio at which potential growth trickles down to the bottom line.  Fundraising has been sluggish over the last 18 months, and sales have consistently moved slower than expected. Now, in the last 6 months, sales have finally started to move properly. At the turn of the year, the first closing was made for the forestry fund, and now, before the summer, we got Infra3 and Real Estate4 (Kiinteistö4) moving. Especially Infra3 was a really good success, given that the first closing was done on such a fast schedule. In addition, a second closing was made for the forestry fund this summer. Overall, the risks regarding the success of the fundraising have decreased significantly over the last 6 months, and now the question is mainly whether Real Estate4 will reach its target size and how CAERUS8 will get moving. Considering these factors, revenue will now certainly start to grow clearly; the only question is the slope.  Since the risk level related to profit growth has come down clearly, it obviously improves the stock’s risk/reward ratio. This is why I think it was the right time to take a stronger view. If the fundraising succeeds and cost control holds, the stock’s return expectation is really good. If we fall a bit short, the return will be moderate or at least flat. If things go completely pear-shaped, even in that scenario, the stock has only limited downside because the large investment portfolio covers such a large part of its value.   I understand more than well the frustration surfacing here regarding the company’s long-continued weak development. There is the same frustration on this side of the table as well, and as I have said before, I have been too optimistic about the case. The right call would have been to have a “reduce” rating until we saw concrete progress in fundraising. I also have my own concerns about how well that cost control really works and how the profit ultimately trickles down to the shareholders. However, I believe the expected values are clearly on the side of taking the risk at this point.  Then, one more question about the target price/rating relationship. We don’t use mechanical percentage limits for when a stock is buy/add/reduce/sell; instead, we look at it relatively. In some @Antti_Siltanen “bumtsibum” case, a 15%/year return expectation might be completely insufficient because, on the other side of the coin, there is a risk of losing capital. Correspondingly, if you could get 15%/year from, for example, Sampo, it would be an insanely good deal due to the non-existent risk level. In CapMan, the risk/reward looks better now than it did 3 months ago, and that is why it was possible to justify a stronger recommendation with that same upside potential. I hope this clarified things!

Nordea: “Following our estimate revisions and our revised SOTP valuation framework, we raise our fair value range to EUR 1.8-2.2 (1.6-2.0) per share.” https://research.nordea.com/api/reportfileapi?id=154dc7ac-1c9d-48f8-97ed-803c8266641a

I’ve been following Inderes for about six years now, and this change in recommendation from “accumulate” (lisää) to “buy” (osta) with the same target price of €2.10 after this earnings report really caught my eye. Although I understand the financial sector quite poorly, I dare to challenge this a bit, as the forum gives me the opportunity to do so   The main figures of the earnings report were significantly below forecasts, “no two ways about it”™️. Especially guessing the investment returns seems to be more of a game of chance. Why is this? Is it a lack of guidance or communication from the company? Is the same problem as widespread in other companies in the sector? The stock did not fall significantly on the earnings day (-3%). So there was no “overreaction” on the downside, which has usually been the reason for a “same target price but recommendation raised” scenario. In their comment, Inderes highlighted the closing of the Infra and NRE funds as important. These closings were already known in June, and Inderes has commented on them on many occasions, both after the press releases and in the Q2 preview. Now, as I understand it, more information about the potential size of these funds emerged through the new capital figures, but even those were apparently (slightly) below Inderes’ forecasts (?) More promises from management about the success of new sales in the future.  When taking all of this into account, the change in recommendation after this report and its timing is a bit puzzling. Perhaps most puzzling is that if it basically matters very little what these report figures turn out to be, what was the most important concrete piece of information that came out in this report that led to the upgrade? How much is this an analyst’s own “judgment call” based on management comments, etc., that isn’t necessarily reflected yet in the DCF-based target price? @Sauli_Vilen Off-topic: is there a table or logic for how those recommendations and target prices are related? I checked the recommendation given in connection with the Q1 report; it was €2.10 and “accumulate” when the share price was €1.80. Now the share price is €1.75, which is a drop of only about 2%, but the recommendation is upgraded to “buy” with the same €2.10 target price?

CapMan

CapMan's Q2 top-line figures and profitability both came in below our expectations. Adjusted EBIT was EUR 3.9m (our estimate: EUR 7.5m), and revenues reached EUR 15.2m (our estimate: EUR 18....

CapMan's Q2 top-line figures and profitability both came in below our expectations. Adjusted EBIT was EUR 3.9m (our estimate: EUR 7.5m), and revenues reached EUR 15.2m (our estimate: EUR 18.7m). Relative to our estimates, the profitability miss was driven by weaker-than-expected fee income, fair value changes and carried interest. Fee income grew to EUR 15.2m, corresponding to 9% y/y growth and resulting in EUR 1.3m in fee profit (up 5% y/y but down 40% q/q). Following our estimate revisions and our revised SOTP valuation framework, we raise our fair value range to EUR 1.8-2.2 (1.6-2.0) per share.

CapMan: A pickup on the horizon - Nordea

CapMan: A pickup on the horizon - Nordea