North Media: Rationale of SDR increasingly questionable - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
Very weak SDR guidance triggers hefty estimate cuts
Three key investor concerns unlikely to ease in the near term
FVR cut to DKK 36-70, net cash position of DKK 42/share
Very weak SDR guidance triggers hefty estimate cuts
Although North Media's FY'25 top-line guidance came in slightly ahead of our expectations, a clearly disappointing profitability guidance prompts us to make hefty cuts to '25e-'26e EBIT (down 53-31%). Particularly a much costlier integration of SDR weighs, with North Media expecting negative EBIT of ~DKK 45m for the segment in '25. In sum, we forecast '25e group EBIT of DKK 58m vs. guidance of DKK 25m-60m. Note that North Media has only published headline P&L figures, as the annual report will be released on 14 March (two days later than initially planned). We also incorporate Minetilbud into a standalone segment (previously included under FK Distribution).
Three key investor concerns unlikely to ease in the near term
FVR cut to DKK 36-70, net cash position of DKK 42/share
Very weak SDR guidance triggers hefty estimate cuts
Although North Media's FY'25 top-line guidance came in slightly ahead of our expectations, a clearly disappointing profitability guidance prompts us to make hefty cuts to '25e-'26e EBIT (down 53-31%). Particularly a much costlier integration of SDR weighs, with North Media expecting negative EBIT of ~DKK 45m for the segment in '25. In sum, we forecast '25e group EBIT of DKK 58m vs. guidance of DKK 25m-60m. Note that North Media has only published headline P&L figures, as the annual report will be released on 14 March (two days later than initially planned). We also incorporate Minetilbud into a standalone segment (previously included under FK Distribution).