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Third party research

Suominen: Weak Q4; targets 10% EBITDA margin by 2028 - Nordea

Suominen

This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values

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Suominen Q4 comparable EBITDA of EUR 1.9m came 60% below Vara Research consensus expectations.

Net sales of EUR 95m were down 20% y/y and came 12% below consensus.

FX had EUR 4.8m negative impact on sales and EUR 0.4m positive impact on EBITDA.

Imports have remained high while the company continued to be burdened by earlier US incidents that have caused some US customers to seek alternative suppliers. We believe this could continue to burden H1 performance.

The company expects improving comparable EBITDA in 2026 from EUR 12.6m in 2025 while consensus is at EUR 28.6m. Board of Directors does not propose any dividend for 2025.

The company launches three-year profitability programme with aim to reach 10% EBITDA margin by 2028 (we model 7.4%). Target is aimed to be reached through e.g. new functioanal operating model and includes EUR 30m investments. Furthermore, the company is making changes to managent with new CFO taking up the position latest 1 June.

Initially, we expect consensus estimates to come down more than 10%.
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