Nightingale has analyzed over 50,000 blood samples from Terveystalo in five months

Translation: Original comment published in Finnish on 6/6/2024 at 11:07 am EEST.

The comments made by Nightingale earlier this year and by Terveystalo representatives in the media have been positive, so the rapid increase to a significant volume of samples analyzed, as reported in the press release, did not come as a surprise to us. Our forecast for the first half of 2024 was more optimistic in terms of sample volumes, but also included a very conservative price point that could be positively exceeded. Therefore, there is no immediate pressure to change our forecast or view.

Cooperation between Nightingale and Terveystalo's occupational health off to a flying start

In the press release, Nightingale and Terveystalo comment on the rationale for the collaboration and on the sample volumes. Terveystalo states that with the collaboration, they can, “for the first time, get a systematic, comprehensive and trackable overview of disease risks on the population level.” According to Terveystalo, the time required to take a blood sample for Nightingale's eight-disease risk analysis is a few minutes, while previous alternative risk calculators (such as FINRISK for cardiovascular diseases) have taken “an unreasonable amount of time” for healthcare professionals.

The collaboration at Terveystalo occupational health started in practice at the beginning of 2024 and in the first five months more than 50,000 blood samples have been analyzed, i.e. over 10,000 samples per month. At a steady pace, this would amount to more than 60,000 samples in the first six months of 2024. Our forecast for the same period included an estimate of 100,000 samples at a significant discount to list price (estimate: EUR 10/sample, list price: EUR 24/sample). Although volumes are so far lower than our assumptions (approx. -40%), our estimate of the price per sample is very conservative and our projected revenue at published volumes would correspond to a price per sample of around EUR 16.7, which is still a 30% discount to the list price. However, the companies have understandably not commented on the commercial terms of the collaboration, so the price point may well be significantly higher than our previous assumption. This introduces a small additional risk to our forecasts, but we see no need for immediate forecast changes.

In any case, the successful start of the collaboration is far more important to Nightingale's investor story than short-term revenue. Nightingale and Terveystalo have already made positive statements about the collaboration through various channels, and the press release is fully consistent with our previous understanding of the successful start of the cooperation. The partnership will provide Nightingale with a valuable reference implementation, which we believe will support its ability to win similar projects in the future. Our previous company report is still relevant and can be read here.