Translation: Original published in Finnish on 6/22/2026 at 7:37 am EEST.

CapMan announced on Thursday that it had completed the first close of its Nordic Real Estate IV fund. The news did not come as a surprise to us, as the company already indicated in its Q1 report that it expected the fund's first closing to occur in the coming months. The company did not disclose the exact size of the first close, and we consider it likely that it remained at most moderate due to the challenging market situation. In any case, the first close is an important milestone in this year's fundraising efforts, and it once again adds some credibility to our strong growth expectations for 2026–2027. The release does not necessitate changes to our forecasts, as we had already incorporated the fund's successful fundraising for the current year into our expectations.

Fundraising progress is an important step

CapMan did not disclose the size of the first close, but we consider it likely to have been moderate at most, due to the sluggish fundraising market in the real estate sector. Our rough estimate for the size is between 100–150 MEUR. However, the first close is strategically very important, as fundraising for this particular fund has been significantly prolonged due to the challenging market situation, and the first close reduces the risk level associated with fundraising.

The fund's target size is 750 MEUR, as previously announced, which would make it clearly the largest fund in the product family. The company's comments on the fundraising outlook were, as usual, very positive, but we consider the 750 MEUR target to be very ambitious in the current challenging fundraising environment. In our view, achieving the target size is not ultimately decisive for investors; the most important thing is to get the fund to a reasonable size (+500 MEUR), towards which the first close is an important concrete step.

Success in new sales determines stock’s return

As we have emphasized before, CapMan's investor story for the current year relies heavily on the success of new sales. CapMan is currently fundraising for all its flagship funds (Dasos IV, NRE IV, CAERUS VIII, and Infra III), and successful fundraising should significantly scale the business. In our view, the biggest risk regarding fundraising is related to NRE IV, as the real estate market situation has remained very challenging. For Infra III (target size 800 MEUR), there is very limited risk associated with fundraising, and we expect the first closing no later than the end of H2. The first close of the Dasos IV forest fund (target size "larger than the preceding 295 MEUR fund") took place last December, and we expect the next closing to occur later this year. It is difficult to estimate the timing of the first close of the CAERUS VIII fund (target size 500 MEUR), but we consider it possible that it will also take place this year. We have discussed the fundraising outlook in more detail in our recent extensive report, which can be read here.