CapMan extensive report: Scale-up time

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 5/28/2026 at 9:45 pm EEST.

CapMan is currently in the midst of the largest fundraising cycle in its history, raising capital simultaneously for nearly all of its strategies. If the fundraising is successful, earnings should also scale up significantly. The share valuation is favorable if earnings growth materializes in line with our forecasts. We reiterate our EUR 2.10 target price and Accumulate recommendation.

An international alternative fund manager

CapMan is a Nordic asset manager focused on alternative asset classes. The company's business is divided into two areas: the Management Company business and balance sheet investments. The Management Company business focusing on alternative funds is the core of CapMan’s business, as balance sheet investments are mainly made in funds managed by the company.

In recent years, CapMan has placed a strong emphasis in its strategy on internationalizing its investor base, and investors from outside the Nordic countries have become CapMan’s largest customer group. At the same time, the product offering has been expanded to new investment areas through the Dasos and CAERUS acquisitions, and the share of real assets in assets under management has risen to 80%. The group structure has also been streamlined by divesting services outside the core business (JAY and CaPS). A key obstacle to the strategy’s progress has been the challenging fundraising market, which has clearly slowed the company’s organic growth.

Success in fundraising makes a big difference

We made no estimate changes in connection with our extensive report. We continue to expect the company's earnings to improve significantly over the next two years. This earnings improvement is driven by the company's largest fundraising in its history, which it must succeed in, particularly with regard to its flagship funds (European Forest Fund IV, Infra III, Nordic Real Estate IV, and CAERUS VIII). As growth materializes, fee profit should continue to scale up, and we estimate a clear upward adjustment in fee profit from its current modest level. In addition to successful new sales, the company also needs strong cost control to properly scale up fee profit.

Earnings growth is accelerated not only by fee profit but also by carried interest, which has been at a gloomy level in recent years due to the sluggish exit market. Several significant funds should now enter into carry during 2026–2027. Our forecasts show a significant improvement in the earnings mix as the share of fee profit increases. This is important to CapMan because it supports an acceptable valuation as business predictability improves.

According to our calculations, CapMan’s cash flow will exceed its earnings in the coming years due to capital released from the balance sheet, which will increase the company’s flexibility in terms of capital allocation. We expect the company to continue its generous dividend policy. It also remains actively on the lookout for acquisition targets to accelerate its growth strategy.

Valuation is cheap as long as earnings growth materializes

In our view, the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach is clearly the best way to value CapMan because it most accurately reflects the individual parts' different profiles. The total value of the SOTP is EUR 2.1 per share. This calculation is based on the assumption that fee profit will significantly improve in the coming years. If fee profit were to remain at the current level, the fair value of the share would be below the current share price. Relative and absolute valuation multiples also support this view. Without clear growth in fee profit, there is no upside to the stock, and, should our forecasts materialize, the stock would be cheap. The expected return on the stock is primarily based on earnings growth but is also supported by a strong dividend yield.