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Aktieanalys utförd av tredje part

CTT Systems: Getting ready for the OEM ramp-up - ABG

CTT Systems

Detta är en aktieanalys producerad av tredje part och reflekterar därför nödvändigtvis ej våra åsikter och värderingar

Ladda ner rapporten (PDF)
Sales trough reached, return to EBIT growth in Q3e
'25e-'27e EBIT down 29-13% on FX and system sales
26-12x EBIT '25e-'27e, ~30-50% ROCE, net cash


Aftermarket normalisation completed already in Q1

As expected, CTT's Q1 saw a steep organic decline (-33% vs. ABGSCe -36%) and a 7% EBIT margin (ABGSCe 17%) due to inventory adjustments in the aftermarket ('AM') channel. However, what we find encouraging is that CTT believed the destocking was completed, which should yield sales of SEK 75-85m in Q2 (we have 78m, +4% organic), vs. ~SEK 54m in Q1. Although we have revised both OEM and VIP sales to reflect supply chain challenges and a lower penetration rate (should be clearly higher from 2026), we argue that the sales trough has been reached, and that CTT's organic growth should accelerate to ~65-40% in Q3-Q4. FX headwinds and a negative mix should still hold back earnings despite CTT returning to >30% margins already in Q2'25e. We therefore assume a ~20% EBIT decline in Q2, ~140% growth in Q3, and a ~10% decline in Q4, before accelerating to 50-40% growth in 2026-2027. Finally, we find it comforting to see that both Boeing and Airbus have seemingly stabilised their supply chains, and are now on track to ramp-up their production rates, which raises confidence in a clear uptick in OEM sales for CTT.
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