Green Landscaping Group: ABGSC Investor Days feedback - ABG
Detta är en aktieanalys producerad av tredje part och reflekterar därför nödvändigtvis ej våra åsikter och värderingar
Expect continued M&A, mainly in DACH
5% adj. EBITA CAGR '24-'27e, M&A to support >10% growth
10-7x EBITA '25e-'27e, 10-16% FCF yields
A weather walkthrough
Today, we hosted Green Landscaping's CFO Marcus Holmström, at ABGSC's Investor Days. Mr Holmström joined the company in December 2024 and has held senior financial positions at AFRY and is also a former Ernst & Young auditor. In addition to emphasising the strength of Green Landscaping's business model and value-creating M&A, he highlighted the Group's development away from dependence on snow removal services since the '20s. GLG's high-margin snow removal contracts come into play when there is >5cm of snowfall in one day. On average this is 4 days per year, in the winter of '25 there were only 1.5 days, similar to '20 when there were 1.3 days, according to the company. In Q1'20 GLG's EBITA was SEK -19m, in Q1'25 it was SEK 40m. This is because the group is larger, but also because of the changes that have taken place in the Swedish snow-dependent companies: in Q1'25, both Norway and Sweden saw organic growth fall by -20%, but Sweden's margin was resilient at 6.5%, while Norway's was -1.8%. A mild winter and a weak Q1 is often offset by a strong Q4, as municipalities usually have more money to spend in Q4, as they want to spend the whole budget in order to get the same amount the following year.
5% adj. EBITA CAGR '24-'27e, M&A to support >10% growth
10-7x EBITA '25e-'27e, 10-16% FCF yields
A weather walkthrough
Today, we hosted Green Landscaping's CFO Marcus Holmström, at ABGSC's Investor Days. Mr Holmström joined the company in December 2024 and has held senior financial positions at AFRY and is also a former Ernst & Young auditor. In addition to emphasising the strength of Green Landscaping's business model and value-creating M&A, he highlighted the Group's development away from dependence on snow removal services since the '20s. GLG's high-margin snow removal contracts come into play when there is >5cm of snowfall in one day. On average this is 4 days per year, in the winter of '25 there were only 1.5 days, similar to '20 when there were 1.3 days, according to the company. In Q1'20 GLG's EBITA was SEK -19m, in Q1'25 it was SEK 40m. This is because the group is larger, but also because of the changes that have taken place in the Swedish snow-dependent companies: in Q1'25, both Norway and Sweden saw organic growth fall by -20%, but Sweden's margin was resilient at 6.5%, while Norway's was -1.8%. A mild winter and a weak Q1 is often offset by a strong Q4, as municipalities usually have more money to spend in Q4, as they want to spend the whole budget in order to get the same amount the following year.