Copyright © Inderes 2011 - present. All rights reserved.
  • Senaste
  • Börs
    • Aktiejämförelse
    • Börskalender
    • Utdelningskalender
    • Aktieanalys
    • Artiklar
  • inderesTV
  • Portfölj
  • Forum
  • Q&A
  • Om oss
    • Följda bolag
    • Teamet
Aktieanalys utförd av tredje part

Humble: Potentially less emphasis on growth ahead - ABG

Humble Group

Detta är en aktieanalys producerad av tredje part och reflekterar därför nödvändigtvis ej våra åsikter och värderingar

Ladda ner rapporten (PDF)
* '25e-'27e adj. EBITA down 2-5%* Cost savings aid EBITA but slow org. growth* '26e EV/EBITA of ~8x, nearly 50% below peersWhat to expect in Q3'25We expect sales of SEK 2,025m for Q3'25, implying ~7% organic y-o-y growth in addition to a ~3% FX headwind. We expect the gross margin to improve by ~60bps given that freight rates, which are often transacted in USD, have decreased somewhat. The cost rationalisation programme, which should save Humble ~SEK 80m per year, will carry a restructuring cost of ~SEK 35m in Q3'25, meaning that we anticipate adj. EBITA of SEK 160m, which implies 5% y-o-y growth and a margin of 7.9%. However, the restructuring cost does not include any potential severance for the former CEO, Mr. Petrén, who departed recently.'25e-'27e adj. EBITA down 2-5%Going into Q3 reporting season, we cut '26e-'27e sales by 2-3% and '25e-'27e adj. EBITA by 2-5%. Our updated assessment on growth entails a future in which the new CEO (recruitment process ongoing) focuses more on the cost base than on organic growth opportunities. Moreover, we take a somewhat more cautious approach with regard to incorporating the incremental cost savings, as our previous estimates had already presumed more cost efficiency in the organisation. From a capital allocation standpoint, we understand that the company is open to exploring options to divest assets or change the ownership structure of certain subsidiaries. In our view, the less-complex options tend to be the best, especially for a group that consists of nearly 50 different subsidiaries.ValuationBased on our revised estimates, the company is trading around 8x '26e EV/EBITA, while peers are trading at an average of 15x despite growing sales at a slower rate.
Följ oss på våra kanaler i social media
  • Inderes Forum
  • Youtube
  • Instagram
  • Facebook
  • X (Twitter)
Ta kontakt
  • info@inderes.se
  • +46 8 411 43 80
  • Vattugatan 17, 5tr
    111 52 Stockholm
Inderes
  • Om oss
  • Teamet
  • Jobba hos oss
  • Inderes som en investering
  • Tjänster för börsbolag
Vår plattform
  • FAQ
  • Servicevillkor
  • Integritetspolicy
  • Disclaimer
Inderes disclaimer gällande utförda aktieanalyser kan läsas här. För mer detaljerad information över de aktier som aktivt bevakas av Inderes, vänligen se respektive bolags bolagsspecifika sida på Inderes webbplats. © Inderes Oyj. Alla rättigheter förbehållna.