INVISIO: Q1 order miss, tough sales comp next - ABG
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Orders and sales below consensus in Q1, costs above
Optimistic H2'25 guidance reiterated, we cut EBIT 8-10%
Tough sales comp in Q2e, share at 41x EV/EBIT 2025e
Q1 miss on most lines
Even though underlying order intake (ex. announced orders in comparable figures) grew 27% y-o-y, the SEK 264m came in 28% below Modular Finance consensus. Combined with a 13% sales miss, slightly lower gross margins, and higher costs, EBIT at 60% below consensus surprised negatively. However, sales still grew 9% organically, although Q4 turned out to be a strong quarter favoured by timing deliveries around year-end that affected Q1 negatively. Invisio has always been volatile on quarters, and we are therefore careful about extrapolating too much from the weaker Q1. We also emphasise the forward-looking comments about higher military budgets, to be seen in order intake and sales in H2'25e.
Optimistic H2'25 guidance reiterated, we cut EBIT 8-10%
Tough sales comp in Q2e, share at 41x EV/EBIT 2025e
Q1 miss on most lines
Even though underlying order intake (ex. announced orders in comparable figures) grew 27% y-o-y, the SEK 264m came in 28% below Modular Finance consensus. Combined with a 13% sales miss, slightly lower gross margins, and higher costs, EBIT at 60% below consensus surprised negatively. However, sales still grew 9% organically, although Q4 turned out to be a strong quarter favoured by timing deliveries around year-end that affected Q1 negatively. Invisio has always been volatile on quarters, and we are therefore careful about extrapolating too much from the weaker Q1. We also emphasise the forward-looking comments about higher military budgets, to be seen in order intake and sales in H2'25e.