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Aktieanalys utförd av tredje part

Nilörn: A beat across the board - ABG

Nilörngruppen

Detta är en aktieanalys producerad av tredje part och reflekterar därför nödvändigtvis ej våra åsikter och värderingar

Ladda ner rapporten (PDF)
* Sales +13% and adj. EBIT +39% vs. ABGSCe* Order intake SEK 224m, in line with ABGSCe* Likely positive consensus estimate revisionsQ3'25 impressionsNilörn delivered sales of SEK 230m (13% vs ABGSCe 203m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth ex. FX of 18%. The order intake came in at SEK 224m, implying a y-o-y growth of -13%. For reference, we expected order bookings in the range of SEK 210-230m. The decline is due to a larger order of SEK 18m that was received in Q3'24 but will be received in Q4'25. Moreover, the seasonal pattern in 2025 lappers to be later, which partially drove the higher than expected volumes in Q3 vs. Q2. The gross margin slightly decreased to 47.3%, which is in line with estimates. Adj. EBIT amounted to SEK 26m (39% vs ABGSCe 19m), for a margin of 11.4% (2.1pp vs ABGSCe 9.3%), vs. 9.4% Q3'24. Nilörn's scalable business model leads to operating leverage in periods of large volumes, which partly drove the EBIT beat vs. our estimates.Thoughts and outlookLooking at the market, the luxury segment is continuing to struggle with retailers holding on to high inventory levels, and recovery is not expected until 2026. The outdoor and sports segment is however performing well, which is encouraging to see. Nilörn:CONNECT is also doing well, and the CEO comments on increasing demand due to EU requirements. Moreover, Nilörn is continuing its investments in Bangladesh and e.g. its launch of the new PLM system (Product Lifecycle Management), which will be implemented in Q4'25 and is expected to increase efficiency. Overall, this quarter is encouraging from a profitability point of view, however, the softer profitability in H1'25 could make it challenging for Nilörn to achieve its targeted EBIT margin.Mechanical impact on cons. earnings is within a h.s.d. rangeThe share is down ~18% YTD and Nilörn is trading at ~8x '25e EV/EBIT on our unrevised estimates. The mechanical impact on consensus estimates on the back of the report is within a h.s.d. range.
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