OrganoClick: Expecting to see early signs of recovery - ABG
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* Q4e sales SEK 22m (21m), EBIT adj. SEK -5.5m (-6.9m)
* We expect NW&FT to start showing early signs of recovery
* Trading at '26e-'27e EV/Sales 2.2x-2.0x
Q4 expectations
For Q4, we estimate sales of SEK 22m, +2% y-o-y and -3% q-o-q (NW&FT: +7% y-o-y, GC&MP: +2% y-o-y, FW: -4% y-o-y). We expect NW&FT to show signs of recovery in Q4 after seven quarters of negative growth . There are signs of improvement in the hotel and restaurant market, which should support a stabilisation for OrganoClick’s largest NW&FT customer. For GC&MP, we expect customer inventories to start to normalise, with a return to slight growth after two quarters of declines. For FW, Q4 is a small quarter, but we expect continued weakness in the Swedish construction market but for the German market to continue to offset this weakness to some extent. On EBIT adj. we estimate SEK -5.5m (-6.8m), adjusted for SEK -5m in structural costs that will be taken in the quarter.
Estimate changes and outlook
We lower '26e-'27e sales by 1% and total '26e-'27e EBIT by SEK 2m. Supported by improving end-markets and new product launches, and with OrganoClick’s cost-saving programme (SEK ~18m savings annually) set to take effect from Q1’26, we expect the company to reach positive EBIT in 2027.
Valuation
OrganoClick is currently trading at 2.2x-2.0x '25e-'27e EV/Sales vs. peers at 2.1x-1.3x. We remain convinced of a sales recovery in '26e, driven by improvements in NW&FT and GC&MP. However, we think the company needs to demonstrate improved profitability to mitigate the long-term liquidity risk.
* We expect NW&FT to start showing early signs of recovery
* Trading at '26e-'27e EV/Sales 2.2x-2.0x
Q4 expectations
For Q4, we estimate sales of SEK 22m, +2% y-o-y and -3% q-o-q (NW&FT: +7% y-o-y, GC&MP: +2% y-o-y, FW: -4% y-o-y). We expect NW&FT to show signs of recovery in Q4 after seven quarters of negative growth . There are signs of improvement in the hotel and restaurant market, which should support a stabilisation for OrganoClick’s largest NW&FT customer. For GC&MP, we expect customer inventories to start to normalise, with a return to slight growth after two quarters of declines. For FW, Q4 is a small quarter, but we expect continued weakness in the Swedish construction market but for the German market to continue to offset this weakness to some extent. On EBIT adj. we estimate SEK -5.5m (-6.8m), adjusted for SEK -5m in structural costs that will be taken in the quarter.
Estimate changes and outlook
We lower '26e-'27e sales by 1% and total '26e-'27e EBIT by SEK 2m. Supported by improving end-markets and new product launches, and with OrganoClick’s cost-saving programme (SEK ~18m savings annually) set to take effect from Q1’26, we expect the company to reach positive EBIT in 2027.
Valuation
OrganoClick is currently trading at 2.2x-2.0x '25e-'27e EV/Sales vs. peers at 2.1x-1.3x. We remain convinced of a sales recovery in '26e, driven by improvements in NW&FT and GC&MP. However, we think the company needs to demonstrate improved profitability to mitigate the long-term liquidity risk.