StrongPoint: A mixed bag - ABG
Detta är en aktieanalys producerad av tredje part och reflekterar därför nödvändigtvis ej våra åsikter och värderingar
* Strong international growth offset by the Nordics
* Short-term Pricer headwind
* Fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share
A mixed Q4
StrongPoint delivered a mixed Q4: revenues were broadly flat y-o-y at NOK 342m (+1%), with strong international growth (UK & Ireland +36%, Spain +58%, Baltics +14%) offset by a 16% decline in the Nordics due to fewer ESL rollouts versus last year. In addition, the move from Pricer to Vusion ESL in H2 2025 temporarily reduced volumes in the Nordics. Reported EBITDA fell to NOK -5m (vs. NOK 5m in Q4'24) driven largely by NOK 7m in non-recurring M&A advisory costs; adjusted EBITDA was ~NOK 2m. For '25, revenue grew 4%, to NOK 1.36bn, and EBITDA improved to NOK 26m (NOK 33m excluding the Q4 one-offs).
Short-term Pricer headwind
Pricer-related recurring revenue (NOK 52m in 2025) will run off through 2026, creating a near-term headwind as it takes time to rebuild a similar recurring base with Vusion. Offsetting this, Vusion has already generated meaningful installation activity: NOK 90m revenue in '25 and NOK 19m gross profit, vs. ~NOK 26m gross profit from the Pricer recurring base. Management argues the move improves long-term positioning by expanding the portfolio beyond ESLs (e.g., next gen. batteryless ESL, shelf edge camera, etc.). StrongPoint and Vusion can also promote each other’s solutions to new customers and collaborate to integrate and enhance StrongPoint’s Order Picking with Vusion’s solutions.
Fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share
The past few years have not been smooth sailing, as project delays and long decision cycles have hampered momentum. However, StrongPoint has delivered improved EBITDA and recurring revenue in '25, pointing to strengthening core fundamentals and better operational traction. Over the medium to long term, we expect grocery retailers to increase technology investments. Our DCF indicates an equity value of ~NOK 600m, and we see a fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share.
* Short-term Pricer headwind
* Fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share
A mixed Q4
StrongPoint delivered a mixed Q4: revenues were broadly flat y-o-y at NOK 342m (+1%), with strong international growth (UK & Ireland +36%, Spain +58%, Baltics +14%) offset by a 16% decline in the Nordics due to fewer ESL rollouts versus last year. In addition, the move from Pricer to Vusion ESL in H2 2025 temporarily reduced volumes in the Nordics. Reported EBITDA fell to NOK -5m (vs. NOK 5m in Q4'24) driven largely by NOK 7m in non-recurring M&A advisory costs; adjusted EBITDA was ~NOK 2m. For '25, revenue grew 4%, to NOK 1.36bn, and EBITDA improved to NOK 26m (NOK 33m excluding the Q4 one-offs).
Short-term Pricer headwind
Pricer-related recurring revenue (NOK 52m in 2025) will run off through 2026, creating a near-term headwind as it takes time to rebuild a similar recurring base with Vusion. Offsetting this, Vusion has already generated meaningful installation activity: NOK 90m revenue in '25 and NOK 19m gross profit, vs. ~NOK 26m gross profit from the Pricer recurring base. Management argues the move improves long-term positioning by expanding the portfolio beyond ESLs (e.g., next gen. batteryless ESL, shelf edge camera, etc.). StrongPoint and Vusion can also promote each other’s solutions to new customers and collaborate to integrate and enhance StrongPoint’s Order Picking with Vusion’s solutions.
Fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share
The past few years have not been smooth sailing, as project delays and long decision cycles have hampered momentum. However, StrongPoint has delivered improved EBITDA and recurring revenue in '25, pointing to strengthening core fundamentals and better operational traction. Over the medium to long term, we expect grocery retailers to increase technology investments. Our DCF indicates an equity value of ~NOK 600m, and we see a fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share.