Harvia CMD on Wednesday - focus on updating financial targets

Translation: Original comment published in Finnish on 5/27/2024 at 7:25 am EEST.

On Wednesday, Harvia is going to hold its first Capital Markets Day. In this context, it would be quite natural to update the financial targets, which have been the same since the company's IPO in 2018. We expect the company to focus on accelerating growth, particularly outside Europe. The event can be viewed on inderesTV on May 29 from 10.30 am EET.

Financial targets likely to be updated

Harvia's current financial targets were set years ago, so we believe that they will probably be updated, although the current targets are still relevant, even though the margin target has been achieved in recent years.

We believe that the company especially aims to accelerate growth, and thus we believe that the growth target could be raised from the current “over 5%” level, or formulated, e.g., into a clear figure in euros. Our forecasts expect annual growth in 2024-27 to be 7-9%. In terms of profitability, however, we believe that the company is directly or indirectly indicating that it is targeting profitability at about the current level (22-23%). In our view, it is also possible to reiterate the current adjusted EBIT target of "above 20%" (which the company has stated is valid in all market situations). In terms of value creation, we believe that accelerating growth is more important and better for the company than improving profitability, and supporting growth will require some increase in fixed costs. We also feel the company’s previous comments and long-term incentives point in this direction. We expect the EBIT margin to improve to 23-24% in the coming years, so in that sense, even a small increase in the targets would be in line with our forecasts.

We consider it likely that the company will remove the lower limit of the target level (currently net debt/EBITDA 1.5-2.5x). This is virtually irrelevant if the company wants to maintain a strong balance sheet in case of acquisitions, and the company is currently well below the current floor (0.6x). Harvia's dividend policy has been to increase the dividend regularly, and we do not expect this to change significantly.

Hardly any major changes to the strategy

Harvia's strategy is now focused on three main themes:

1.      Increasing average purchases

2.      Geographical expansion

3.      Enhancing productivity

We do not expect any material changes to the strategy, but it is possible that it will be reformulated. Harvia is doing well, so we see no reason for a major change of direction. The company is expected to highlight the potential of countries outside Europe and the stronger drive in infrared and steam saunas, including acquisitions. Harvia's strategy and current targets have been discussed in more detail in our extensive report published last fall, which is still relatively topical.