Automatic translation: Originally published in Danish 10/11/2026, 11:47 GMT. Give feedback here.

Lundbeck has today released its financial statements for the first nine months of 2026 and simultaneously upgraded its full-year guidance for the second time this year.

The third quarter beat analysts' expectations across all main lines, with revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS all coming in above the highest estimate in the consensus.

Revenue grew by +13% in local currencies (+9% in DKK) to DKK 20,191m in the first nine months, and adjusted for the planned one-off inventory build-up of DKK 470m in the 27 partner markets in the first quarter, the underlying growth was +11% in local currencies. Adj. EBITDA rose by +19% in local currencies (+12% in DKK) to DKK 7,026m, corresponding to +12% adjusted for the inventory build-up, and adj. EPS landed at DKK 5.42 vs. DKK 4.32 in the same period last year.

Measured against expectations, the third quarter is a clear beat across all main lines. Revenue reached DKK 6,603m vs. a consensus estimate of DKK 6,354m, adj. EBITDA was DKK 2,261m vs. expected DKK 1,953m, i.e., 16% above the average, and adj. EPS came in at DKK 1.71 vs. expected DKK 1.49. On all three lines, the result exceeds the highest estimate in consensus, which was DKK 6,527m, DKK 2,095m, and DKK 1.59, respectively. The figures stem from the analyst consensus that Lundbeck itself collected ahead of the financial statements, based on estimates from 12 analysts.

The upward revision itself is substantial. Revenue growth is now expected at 11 to 12% in local currencies vs. previously 7 to 9%, and adj. EBITDA growth is raised to 15 to 19% vs. previously 8 to 14%, corresponding to a lift of around 6 percentage points at the midpoint. Continued strong Vyepti performance in the US and a better-than-expected development in partner markets are cited as the primary reasons, and the R&D guidance is narrowed to DKK 5.6 to 5.7bn vs. previously DKK 5.6 to 5.9bn. This is the second upward revision this year following the one in May, and it comes at a time when the market had braced for normalization in the second half.

The gap to full-year consensus is significant. Ahead of the financial statements, analysts expected revenue of DKK 26,022m and adj. EBITDA of DKK 8,194m for 2026. Based on the currency difference shown by the nine-month figures between local currencies and DKK, the guidance roughly implies reported revenue in the magnitude of DKK 26.4 to 26.6bn and adj. EBITDA of around DKK 8.5 to 8.8bn for the full year.

We therefore see a good probability of a significant consensus upgrade, particularly on the earnings side, where the gap is largest

Growth remains broadly based across strategic brands, which grew by +16% in local currencies to DKK 15,951m in the nine-month period and now account for 79% of group revenue vs. 74% after the first quarter. Looking at the third quarter alone, Vyepti® landed at around DKK 1,668m vs. expected DKK 1,566m, Rexulti® at around DKK 1,774m vs. expected DKK 1,749m, Brintellix®/Trintellix® at around DKK 1,058m vs. expected DKK 999m, and the Abilify LAI franchise at around DKK 988m. The deviation is therefore not driven by a single item, but by breadth across the portfolio with Vyepti® as the heaviest contributor. Geographically, the US remains the engine with +18% in local currencies to DKK 11,217m in the nine months, while Europe grew by +9% (underlying +3%) and International Operations by +5% (underlying 0%).

At the same time, the pipeline is delivering on the points we have highlighted in our investment case.

Randomization is now complete in both Phase III studies with bexicaserin, and topline results from DEEp OCEAN are expected in late Q4, making 2026 a year with a hard catalyst rather than just early de-risking. According to the company, amlenetug remains on track for topline results in 2027, Vyepti® has obtained marketing authorization in Japan, thereby strengthening the migraine franchise globally, and the decision regarding Phase III with bocunebart is expected before the end of the year. The upcoming readouts have a direct impact on how deep the patent cliff will be in the estimates. Management is now pointing toward the Scale phase of the focused strategy from 2027.

Financial strength continues to be supported by the disciplined capital allocation we have highlighted as a key element of the case. At the half-year mark, net debt had been reduced to DKK 7.4bn, corresponding to around 1x adj. EBITDA, and this year's higher earnings continue to support deleveraging and strategic flexibility for targeted M&A,

Overall, the quarter confirms the core elements of our investment case. Lundbeck is delivering growth and cash flow now, the pipeline is progressing toward the readouts required to sustain growth following patent expirations, and the balance sheet provides headroom. We have argued that the discount to peers with similar patent exposure across EV/EBIT, P/E, and particularly EV/FCF appears exaggerated, and an upward revision of this magnitude strengthens that argument. However, part of this discount has narrowed after the share delivered +30% since we updated our research report.

On Thursday, November 12 at 1:00 PM, we are hosting an event with Jens Høyer, Vice President & Head of Investor Relations, who will present the Q3 financial statements and answer questions from the audience.

You can already sign up and submit your questions, and you do not need to participate live to ask questions.

https://www.inderes.dk/videos/lundbeck-praesentation-af-delarsrapport-for-q3-2026

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from H. Lundbeck A/S for a Digital IR subscription agreement. /Michael Friis, 12:47 PM on November 10, 2026.