The earnings growth outlook for asset managers in the coming years is strong

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 03/13/2026 at 08:25 am EET

In the wealth management sector, 2025 was in many ways mixed (our previous article can be read here), but the strong market momentum at the end of the year and record-high assets under management (AUM) set the sector up for an excellent start to 2026. We expect broad earnings growth from the sector this year, driven by an increase in recurring fees. The key question mark for this year is the recovery of demand for alternative products and the escalation of potential geopolitical risks.

Record-high AUM and strengthened sentiment support earnings growth

Capital market developments in the second half of 2025 were very favorable, pushing assets under management (AUM) for almost all asset managers we cover to record levels at the turn of the year. This is critical because asset managers' income generation primarily relies on recurring fees charged on assets under management. Thus, 2026 started with a significantly higher fee level than the previous year. Due to strong return development, the potential for performance fees is also greater than before, as several funds are now in profit-sharing thanks to strong returns.

The market sentiment has also clearly strengthened. Although market sentiment has suffered in the short term due to instability in the Middle East, we believe that the overall mood is significantly better than it was a year ago, for example, which is also reflected in record-high stock market indices. A key reason for this is that the markets have learned to better tolerate Trump's erratic behavior.

Demand for alternative investments is the key question mark for the year

The central theme for 2024-2025 has been the return of traditional asset management. Traditional asset management sales have performed very well, and in terms of returns, the traditional market has significantly outperformed alternative products. The key reason, of course, is the end of the zero-interest-rate period, which improved the expected return on interest rates and caused widespread challenges for alternative products. A key challenge for alternatives has been the delay in capital returns and the resulting over-allocation. In addition, domestic open-ended real estate funds have entered a crisis, and their situation is currently very difficult.

In our view, the demand for alternatives has the prerequisites to start recovering more strongly during 2026, as the factors that previously hampered the market are gradually easing, with overallocations beginning to diminish and capital returns increasing. We consider the Finnish real estate sector a clear exception, where challenges are expected to persist at least for the remainder of this year. Of the companies we cover, CapMan, eQ, Titanium, Taaleri, and United Bankers are all highly dependent on the demand for alternative products, and a market recovery would be highly desirable for their earnings growth.

The EBIT growth outlook for 2026 is strong

We forecast clear adjusted EBIT growth for almost all the asset managers we cover for 2026. On average, earnings improve by almost 20%. We note that for Mandatum, we look at the Fee income and for Taaleri, the operating profit of Private Equity Funds, as these provide the best picture of asset management development. In Aktia's case, we use the Group-level EBIT, as the company's reporting indicates that segments other than Asset Management also include services related to investing and asset management.

EBIT growth is driven primarily by the increase in revenue from AUM growth and, to a lesser extent, performance-based fees. The sector typically has very strong earnings leverage, and revenue growth flows to the bottom line at a rate of over 50%. Thus, with revenues growing in line with our expectations, investors do not need to worry about growth flowing through to earnings. The earnings growth outlook for the coming years is also positive due to strong growth trends in the Finnish asset management market, and we estimate annual earnings growth of around 10% for the sector.

On a company-specific basis, Evli and Mandatum start the year at the top of the sector, and their performance has been clearly the best in the sector for the past two years. Evli's earnings are exceptionally flat in our estimates for 2026 due to record-high performance fees in the comparison period. eQ and Titanium, on the other hand, are seeking an earnings turnaround with their updated strategies, while challenges in real estate funds continue to provide a clear headwind. For CapMan and United Bankers, 2026 is a clear opportunity to prove themselves, and they should be able to significantly accelerate sales of their spearhead funds. Alexandria, in turn, should be able to prove its transition from a product house towards an asset manager in its numbers this year. Taaleri should be able to expand its product offering beyond Energy in the Private equity fund business in 2026 and prove that investments outside Energy are warranted. We note that the share of private equity funds outside Energy in the company's value is marginal. After a turbulent 2025, Aktia'sfocus is finally on operational execution. Although the decline in net interest income will still weigh on earnings development in 2026, we expect asset management commission income to turn to growth, supported by revitalized new sales.

*Aktia's reported EBIT for 2025 (24.9 MEUR) was weighed down by a 70.1 MEUR non-recurring impairment. For this reason, we use adjusted EBIT for comparison.