Inderes Group - Signs of a better IPO market become a reality - SEB

Signs of a better IPO market become a reality
Ahead of Inderes’s Q3 report, we slightly lower our FY/25 estimates; however, it looks as though the IPO market is reopening, hence we keep our 2026-27 estimates broadly unchanged. While we still await a Swedish turnaround, we flag the importance of the underlying Finnish market returning to growth. We also introduce a SOTP valuation, although our fair equity value range remains unchanged at EUR 19-21 per share.

Q3/25E: August fell slightly behind, September has tough comparison base
Inderes’s August sales missed our estimate and the September comparison figure is relatively strong. Consequently, our Q3 estimates fall slightly and we expect Q3 sales to increase by just 1% y/y. The key risk (both upside and downside) for September sales is the timing of larger projects and listed companies’ CMDs. Looking at segments, we believe group growth has been driven by Research (modest pricing-driven) and Software (solid double-digit), with Events likely offsetting the growth. In terms of the Q3 EBITA margin, we expect 23.0%, slightly down from 23.6% in Q3/24.

The long-awaited pick up in IPO activity
Autumn has seen the IPO market reopen in Finland, with two IPOs announced so far. While Inderes’s growth story in Sweden awaits concrete results from the strategic realignment, we think the key growth driver is market growth in Finland. We believe Inderes should enjoy strong closing rates with new companies entering the Finnish public market. And that is not limited just to Research, as a newly listed company needs to assess all IR services.

Introducing SOTP, but fair value range unchanged at EUR 19-21 per share
Following more detailed disclosure by segment, we introduce SOTP to our valuation approach. However, the outcome of our SOTP analysis (range of EUR 20-24 per share) does not trigger a change in our fair equity value range.