Ahead of Inderes’ Q3 report, we make small downward estimate revisions due to softer August sales data than we expected. Despite market headwinds (companies leaving the exchange), the number of new research coverage initiations has been good. We see no material changes to the case, in which higher multiples would require further evidence of conquering the Swedish market. Our fair value range remains unchanged at EUR 19-21.

Inderes' August sales came in slightly below our estimate. While the muted 3% growth was driven by IR software our take is that event business saw monthly volatility being on the downside. For September we expect input 12% growth, which after August seems elevated. However, we note that the timing of CMDs and other events may give the required boost for the next month.

With the Q2 report was broadly in line with SEBe and the July sales report, our estimate changes for 2024 are muted.

Inderes reported Q2 broadly in line with our expectations. Also July sales were reported and sales for the month were slightly above our estimate as the IR software business kept performing.

We increase our fair value range ahead of Inderes’s Q2 report. Our take from recent months is that the company has continued to grow in AGM and IR software. However, due to high market penetration in Finland, the long-term value creation opportunity lies in Sweden, where the steps are still relatively small and the future is more uncertain. We raise our 2024-26 EBITDA estimates by 7-8%.

Inderes continued better-than-expected sales performance in May with monthly sales up 15% y/y. The May sales of EUR 1.9m topped our estimate of EUR 1.7m with a clear margin.

Inderes is building a Nordic growth story on solid home market foundations. After acquiring a position in the Swedish IR event market, expansion in the country is easier, especially within events and AGMs. However, research needs wide retail investor reach, which requires greater awareness. We think successful expansion in Sweden offers upside, but the outcome is far from certain. Our fair value range is fine-tuned to EUR 19-20 (18-20).

Inderes delivered solid monthly sales data for April. The sales in April were up 33% y/y (driven by the timing of Easter) while we had input an increase of 20%. We conclude that we had underestimated the overall AGM season sales. Also, the company flags growth in event business as well as IR software. Although the delta seen in April cannot be extrapolated to the coming months' estimates we note that our Q2 sales estimate looks a bit shy after the beat in April.