Wirtek (Investment case): Well-positioned to increase profitability
Sammanfattning
- In 2025, Wirtek focused on strategic consolidation and cost optimization, achieving an EBITDA of approximately DKK 1.8m in Q4 with a margin of ~11%, despite lower revenue compared to the previous year.
- For 2026, Wirtek projects revenue of DKK 65-70m and EBITDA of DKK 3-6m, indicating significant potential growth in EBITDA due to high operational gearing.
- Wirtek's new strategy aligns with market trends in EU data sovereignty and AI infrastructure, aiming to enhance revenue through outcome-based services and IoT solutions.
- Valuation analysis shows Wirtek trading at an EV/Sales of 0.7x and EV/EBITDA of 10.5x for 2026, suggesting potential for re-rating if earnings recovery continues.
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In connection with the publication of Wirtek's annual report for 2025 and the release of 2026 guidance, we have updated our investment-case.
2025 was a year of strategic consolidation and investment for Wirtek, with performance gradually improving through the year as cost optimisation took hold. Q4 2025 - derived as a standalone quarter from the audited full-year results - marks a clear inflection point, delivering EBITDA of approximately DKK 1.8m at a margin of ~11%, the strongest quarter of the year by a significant margin, despite revenue remaining below prior year levels. This confirms that the adjusted cost base is in place, and that earnings can expand meaningfully as revenue recovers.
For 2026, Wirtek guides for revenue of DKK 65-70m and EBITDA of DKK 3-6m, representing growth of 1-9% on the topline and 76-253% on EBITDA. The guidance directly reflects the high operational gearing embedded in the business.
Wirtek's new strategy, launched in November 2025, is well-aligned with key market trends including EU data sovereignty, physical AI infrastructure, and growing regulatory demand around NIS2 and the AI Act. The strategy pivots the business toward outcome-based Services delivery and recurring IoT Solutions revenue, building on the Pragmasoft and Seluxit acquisitions.
Our investment case covers the key investment reasons and risks and valuation perspectives.
The key investment reasons center on the combination of an adjusted cost base and high operational gearing making earnings highly sensitive to revenue recovery, AI-driven efficiency gains providing further upside to margins, and a new well-aligned strategy with where the market is heading in energy, EU data compliance and physical AI. Wirtek also has a track record of accretive bolt-on M&A.
The key risks include continued macroeconomic sensitivity in the Services business, the structural pressure AI places on traditional hourly pricing models requiring a shift toward value-based pricing, and the current low share price limiting M&A optionality.
From a valuation perspective, Wirtek trades at EV/Sales of 0.7x on 2026 guidance versus a Nordic peer median of 0.9x, and EV/EBITDA of 10.5x at the guidance midpoint versus a peer median of 8.4x. Wirtek also trades well below its own three-year historical EV/Sales average, suggesting meaningful re-rating potential if the earnings recovery through 2026 is sustained.
For more insights into the results, you can watch the management present the FY 2025 results, 2026 guidance and new strategy here: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/wirtek-presentation-of-annual-report-2025
Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Wirtek for a Digital IR agreement. Michael Friis 14:30, 20/03/2026 (Updated 20.03.2025, 15:25).