B3 Consulting Group: Cost adjustments should lift margins in '26e - ABG
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* Minor negative estimate revisions due to lower headcount
* Continued negative net recruitment trend, but increasing margins
* Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 5.5x
Q4 report
B3 missed slightly on sales, at SEK 315m (-8% vs. ABGSCe SEK 343m). This was partly supported by Norwegian (Habberstad) sales but held back slightly by FX, subcontractor volumes and fewer consultants. Organically, sales declined by ~14%, affected by weaker market conditions in Sweden and Poland, where both countries had fewer consultants. Adj. EBITA was SEK 17m (+8% vs. ABGSCe SEK 16m). The beat was mainly driven by lower overhead costs as B3 had a ~10% reduction in FTEs y-o-y, showing its strategy towards cost adjustments in the weaker market environment.
Estimate changes
We cut adj. EBITA by 3%. Our estimates are a mechanical extrapolation of the company's negative sequential net recruitment. B3 has had too many consultants relative to current demand, and some skills have not fully aligned with the needs of customers. The company is therefore now focusing on recruitment in stronger demand areas, which we view as positive from a longer-term perspective. We also see that the market is starting to stabilise in terms of demand, hourly prices and net recruitment.
Valuation
Based on our revised estimates, the stock is trading at 5.5x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~35% below current peer multiples and ~40% below the historical average for Nordic IT services peers. We see that B3 is in a clear adjustment phase, reducing its costs and aligning headcount to demand. Norway remains an attractive market, with fast-growing segments in defence and security, where B3 is able to have a higher price range. The Norwegian market also has a lower supply of consultants (than e.g. Sweden), which we see as positive for further expansion. We continue to see B3 as well-positioned for '26e-'27e, supported by stabilising market conditions.
* Continued negative net recruitment trend, but increasing margins
* Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 5.5x
Q4 report
B3 missed slightly on sales, at SEK 315m (-8% vs. ABGSCe SEK 343m). This was partly supported by Norwegian (Habberstad) sales but held back slightly by FX, subcontractor volumes and fewer consultants. Organically, sales declined by ~14%, affected by weaker market conditions in Sweden and Poland, where both countries had fewer consultants. Adj. EBITA was SEK 17m (+8% vs. ABGSCe SEK 16m). The beat was mainly driven by lower overhead costs as B3 had a ~10% reduction in FTEs y-o-y, showing its strategy towards cost adjustments in the weaker market environment.
Estimate changes
We cut adj. EBITA by 3%. Our estimates are a mechanical extrapolation of the company's negative sequential net recruitment. B3 has had too many consultants relative to current demand, and some skills have not fully aligned with the needs of customers. The company is therefore now focusing on recruitment in stronger demand areas, which we view as positive from a longer-term perspective. We also see that the market is starting to stabilise in terms of demand, hourly prices and net recruitment.
Valuation
Based on our revised estimates, the stock is trading at 5.5x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~35% below current peer multiples and ~40% below the historical average for Nordic IT services peers. We see that B3 is in a clear adjustment phase, reducing its costs and aligning headcount to demand. Norway remains an attractive market, with fast-growing segments in defence and security, where B3 is able to have a higher price range. The Norwegian market also has a lower supply of consultants (than e.g. Sweden), which we see as positive for further expansion. We continue to see B3 as well-positioned for '26e-'27e, supported by stabilising market conditions.