* Q1 highlights long-term upside to margins
* Adj. EBITA +0-2% on '26e-'28e; 8% CAGR '25-'28e
* Near-term focus will be on allocating cash flow
Strong performance in Sweden partly offset by DK/NO
Coor continued to demonstrate better margins in Q1, driven by the actions taken by the new management team to simplify the company's structure. This was demonstrated by the strong margins in Sweden as well as lower central costs, which is something we expect to carry forward into the rest of the year. On the other hand, Denmark and Norway underperformed, and we think both segments will continue to face challenges in the coming quarters due to churning contracts in Denmark and lower variable volumes in Norway (due to unusually high volumes in Q2-Q3 last year). But taken together, the report made us more confident that management's actions are bearing fruit and that margins should continue to expand longer-term, driven by Sweden (read more in our CMD note). Thus, we raise '27e-'28e adj. EBITA 1-2% ('26e unchanged), held back somewhat by Denmark and Norway.
We see margins above target from 2027
Even though we see organic growth remaining muted, we see 11% adj. EBITA growth in 2026, and 7% in 2027, supported by a margin slightly above the target in 2027 (5.6% vs. targeted 5.5%). We think this is achievable due to the strong performance in Sweden, even as margins in Denmark and Norway remain below historical levels, meaning that there could be more margin upside in the longer term (we have 5.7% in 2028).
Becoming a cash flow machine again
While cash flow has improved, we expect FCF to be 30% higher in 2027 (SEK 500m) vs. 2025 as Coor returns to a normalised cash conversion. With gearing already at a good level in Q1 (2.3x), the company has the firepower for both smaller bolt-on acquisitions and buybacks already in 2026. We view this as a key factor in the near term. The valuation remains in line with ISS and Nordic service sector at 11x EBITA '26e on our estimates.