* Normalisation in a small quarter * Better cash flow, low net debt and buybacks * M&A on the way and infrastructure spending to rise
Sales and earnings miss driven by normalisation
Infrea sold its Water & Sewage segment during Q4'25, and we have included the segment in the comparable numbers for 2025. Infrea's Q1 was softer than expected, mainly because Q1'25 was stronger than we had realised in both segments, driven by a different project mix and milder weather last year. This caused sales in both segments to decline, with Land & Construction (L&C) -13% y-o-y and Paving Services (PS) -28%. Organic sales growth was -15% y-o-y (+3% Q4'25), while total sales were down -22% due to the divestment. EBITA was stable in PS at SEK -35m, while EBITA in L&C declined by SEK 6m to SEK -11m on tough comps, although it is now reverting to a normalised level. FCF was better y-o-y at SEK -32m (Q1'25 at -45m) despite high capex and a seasonally weak cash flow quarter.
Seasonally, Q1 is the smallest quarter
We lower '26e-'28e EBITA by 10-6% on the miss and the normalisation of the Q1 numbers into '27-'28. Q1 is a small quarter, and we argue the weaker numbers should not be extrapolated into further quarters in '26e. Infrea continues to focus on internal efficiency and margins over volumes. We think improving margins should support SEK 56m EBITA in '26e and a 9% CAGR '25-'28e. The low net debt at 0.8x makes us more confident that Infrea could add growth through M&A.
Margins to improve and FCF to stabilise
We believe that Infrea is well-positioned to grow organically and improve its margins given its exposure to underlying demand and to public customers (~55%), as well as support from M&A (13% sales CAGR in '21-'24). For '25-'28e, we expect Infrea to deliver profitability growth and FCF above peers but with slightly lower margins and sales growth. The share is trading at 7-4x adj. EBITA on '26e-'28e with a 17-13% lease-adj. FCF yield, while peers are trading at 7-6x.