* Q1 in line with pre-announced numbers * Minor estimate revisions, H2'26 the key catalyst * Fair value range unchanged at SEK 4.0-6.2
Weak GM in Q1, opex offset
Q1 sales confirmed the pre-announced number of SEK 36.9m (0% vs. ABGSCe) with an organic decline of 3.6%, and -17.1% y-o-y growth in SEK. Adj. EBIT of SEK -13.4m (-2% vs. ABGSCe) was within the range provided on 10 April, yet with a gross margin of 91.6% (ABGSCe 95.5%) surprising on the negative side. Management highlighted that the gross margin decline reflected an unfavourable product/customer mix, negative COGS scale effects on the lower volumes, and an FX-related lag between production and consumption. Opex was below our forecast at SEK -47.2m (ABGSCe SEK -48.3m), with sales commissions and fees coming in in-line with ABGSCe, down 220bp y-o-y, to 47.1%. FCF in the quarter came in at SEK -20.9m (ABGSCe -12.1m), negatively impacted by capitalisation of R&D. At the end of Q1, the cash position remained solid at SEK 170.5m.
Execution issues being addressed
The new US-based CEO attributes the Q1 shortfall to a slowdown in sales rep hiring in late 2025, departures of underperforming reps, and contract renegotiations at certain key accounts, which all materialised in the same quarter. Hiring is said to have accelerated in Q1, key account discussions are progressing, and the CEO's US presence should shorten decision loops with KOLs and hospital systems. Catalyst's clinical profile (88.4% fusion rate in PROPEL) remains the core pillar of the company's prospects. We trim adj. EBIT by -1.1% for '26e and by 5.4%-5.8% for '27e-'28e after Q1. We now assume a similar sales level in Q2 as in Q1, at around USD 4m, before returning to growth in H2'26e.
Fair value range unchanged at SEK 4.0-6.2
With relatively limited estimate changes, we leave our DCF-based fair value range unchanged at SEK 4.0-6.2. Evidence of a return to commercial momentum in H2'26 remains the key catalyst going forward.