* Net commission income miss
* Negative TPV revisions result in lower earnings
* Merchant base still growing, supporting growth
Net commission income miss
Qliro reported a 91% operating profit miss versus FactSet consensus and a 92% miss versus ABGSCe, mainly driven by weaker-than-expected net commission income (SEK 16.7m vs. ABGSCe SEK 23.2m and consensus SEK 21.5m) despite TPV growing 28.1% y-o-y. BNPL volumes grew faster than expected (46.7% vs. ABGSCe 41.3%), supporting stronger net interest income (SEK 104.5m vs. ABGSCe 102.9m). Credit losses were also better than expected at SEK -23.7m (vs. ABGSCe SEK -27.0m and consensus SEK -29.5m), suggesting investments in the new credit model are starting to bear fruit. We believe the shorter loan durations are starting to have an impact, resulting in a faster run-off of the existing loan book while BNPL volumes continue to grow. Management is still guiding for a profitable FY26.
Negative TPV revisions
We still believe Qliro is in continuous growth. However, management highlights that TPV growth will not accelerate as it has before. Therefore, we lower our TPV estimates for '26e, '27e and '28e to 34%, 29% and 27% y-o-y from 40%, 35% and 30%, resulting in a decrease in net income to SEK 11.4m, 19.2m and 39m (after non-controlling interest) respectively. Our main reason for the negative revisions in net income comes from the slower TPV growth in our forecast years, as Qliro is still in a break-even phase.
Merchant base reaches 812 (120% y-o-y)
We remain positive about Qliro improving its BNPL penetration and credit quality, driven by improved underwriting. As Qliro now has a total merchant base of 812 (120% y-o-y), we still expect larger volumes to materialise as future earnings. We also note that total costs are beginning to level off, suggesting that investments in the new platform, including Gen Checkout 4, are starting to scale without requiring a corresponding increase in the cost base.