* We expect 35% organic growth in Q1e
* Q1 mix likely to be somewhat favourable
* FVR of SEK 30-45 reiterated
Q1 expectations
We expect a solid Q1, with sales of SEK 43m, corresponding to an organic growth rate of 35%. While sales are affected by timing, likely with fewer contracts signed early in the year (given a relative lack of publicly announced customer wins), this is not unusual, as Q1 is the smallest quarter following the start of the academic spring term. We think that monetisation per user is continuing to grow, and that ARPPU will remain strong, at SEK 196. We expect a gross margin of 39% (36% less capitalised work), reflecting a more favourable revenue mix, and we expect EBITDA to come in at SEK -0.5m.
Estimate changes
We make small adjustments to our estimates and lower '26e-'28e sales by 1% so that our EBITDA estimates come down 10-2%, reflecting a softer margin trajectory. Even so, Skolon has already reached profitability in more mature markets such as Sweden and the company continues to grow and gain market share in newer markets, although this may result in more volatile earnings.
Implied valuation
Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at '26e-'27e EV/Gross profit of 6-4x, which is slightly above peers. However, we expect Skolon to grow >3x faster than the average peer because it is growing both its user base and revenue per paying user due to a higher platform usage, unlike some peers that only have one growth avenue. We maintain our fair value range of SEK 30-45.