Incap

9,95EUR −0,5 %
5 485 investerare följer bolaget.

Incap är verksamma inom den industriella sektorn. Bolaget levererar utrustning och tillhörande service för industriella aktörer, där utbudet inkluderar PCB montering, systemintegreringar, boxbyggnadsintegration, designvalidering, samt inspektionsmetoder. Störst verksamhet återfinns inom Norden, Baltikum och Asien. Bolaget etablerades ursprungligen 1985 och har sitt huvudkontor i Helsingfors.

P/E (23e)
12,67
EV/EBIT (23e)
8,67
P/B (23e)
2,64
Direktavkastnings- % (23e)
1,51 %
Riktkurs
12.00 EUR
Rekommendation
Öka
Uppdaterad
26.4.2023
NASDAQ Helsinki
ICP1V
Dagens lägsta / högsta pris
9,91 / 10,08 EUR
Börsvärde
291,38 mn EUR
Omsättning
537,95 tn EUR
Volym
54 tn
Risk och rekommendation
HögRiskLåg
SäljRekommendationKöp

Forum updates

Stay up-to-date with the latest talk about Incap
Incap’s CMD was held a month ago. There were some excellent and useful slides. I recommend to go trough the materials. Here a few highlights that I did. Concentrated customer structure A concentrated customer structure is typical for the industry. When a customer’s business starts to roll, the share of the contract manufacturer’s business grows rapidly. Typically the customer relationships are long, even strategic, and the contract manufacturer is not easily changed which is one reason why winning new customers takes time. If I only quote right, CEO Otto Pukk said: "Incap is increasingly integrated in customers’ business processes, e.g. prototyping and product creation.” Incap have customers from many industries, but a lot of the business is related to green energy and electrical mobility. Its biggest customer is Victron Energy. Incap does not report its customers but the company’s name has come up in several contexts. Quality is important. Companies do not change EMS-suppliers easily because of price. Acquisitions Incap wants to accelerate growth with acquisitions. It is not interested in turnaround companies, the company to be bought should already be in good shape, compatible with the company culture and the purchase price reasonable. Otto Pukk said that they are targeting geographical expansion in markets with a well-functioning operating environment (e.g., Germany and the USA). Production plant network Incap has four manufacturing units located in Estonia, Slovakia, Great Britain, and India which is kind of the heart of the company. There has been a lot of discussion about the trend of localization. According to Incap it started before the supply chain problems of the pandemic era from the trade war and the pandemic only gave it more boost. For example in the USA, the Made in USA label is even more important. However it is still more talk than action, Pukk said. Asia’s dominant share is driven by the historically lower cost level of the region than in developed economies. However, the cost dynamic has been shifting over the last decade and have resulted in new production and relocation of old production to more advantageous regions, like India and Vietnam. Incap has done capacity investments in India and a third factory is will be ready by next year first quarter. It is important to remember that there are opportunities to increase production even without increasing the floor area, e.g. from 2 shifts to 3. Ramping up production in the EMS industry is relatively straightforward and usually takes from three to six months, once needed machinery and equipment have been received. Inventory Incap’s operations are reasonably working capital intensive and especially during a period of strong organic growth, investments in inventories and thus in its own supply capacity/customer relationships is necessary both from a tactical and strategic perspective. CFO Antti Pynnönen highlighted that Incap buys materials based on a firm customer purchase order and delivery forecasts. “The materials we have today is the business for tomorrow for Incap.”
Antti Järvenpää
för 5 månader sedan💙 3
Den som hellre tittar på engelska versionen:
Isa Hudd
för 2 månader sedan💙 2

Resultaträkning

20192020202120222023e2024e2025e2026e
Omsättning71,02106,49169,79263,79236,67265,19291,71315,05
tillväxt-%20,46 %49,95 %59,43 %55,36 %−10,28 %12,05 %10,00 %8,00 %
EBITDA11,4715,9229,2642,8035,3642,8647,3153,36
EBIT10,0914,6526,7740,0031,1038,3242,8548,92
EBIT10,0912,5925,9739,0030,7738,0242,5548,62
Vinst före skatt9,6611,5125,7236,6829,8238,0542,8749,25
Nettoresultat6,279,2521,0627,6122,7128,9132,5837,43
EPS0,290,370,740,980,790,991,121,29
tillväxt-%7,32 %30,50 %97,95 %31,49 %−19,48 %26,26 %13,14 %14,67 %
Utdelning0,000,000,000,000,150,200,250,30
Utdelningskvot19,32 %20,24 %22,45 %23,45 %

Lönsamhet och avkastning på kapital

20192020202120222023e2024e2025e2026e
EBITDA-%16,15 %14,95 %17,23 %16,23 %14,94 %16,16 %16,22 %16,94 %
EBIT-%14,20 %13,76 %15,77 %15,16 %13,14 %14,45 %14,69 %15,53 %
EBIT-%14,20 %11,83 %15,30 %14,78 %13,00 %14,34 %14,59 %15,43 %
ROE33,34 %30,62 %41,53 %36,74 %22,99 %23,62 %22,01 %21,21 %
ROI40,52 %32,98 %42,42 %42,69 %26,53 %28,41 %26,89 %26,23 %

Värdering

20192020202120222023e2024e2025e2026e
Pris per aktie (EUR)2,903,6915,7017,109,959,959,959,95
Aktier21,8529,1029,2529,2529,2529,2529,2529,25
Börsvärde63,26107,38459,17500,26291,09291,09291,09291,09
Rörelsevärde62,78113,27461,20513,86266,71246,88227,60204,44
EV/S0,881,062,721,951,130,930,780,65
EV/EBITDA5,477,1115,7612,017,545,764,813,83
EV/EBIT6,227,7317,2312,858,586,445,314,18
EV/EBIT6,228,9917,7613,188,676,495,354,20
P/E (just.)10,089,8521,1717,5312,6710,038,877,73
P/E10,0811,6121,8018,1212,8210,078,937,78
P/B2,892,797,305,722,642,161,801,52
P/S0,891,012,701,901,231,101,000,92
Direktavkastning1,51 %2,01 %2,51 %3,02 %
Soliditet59,99 %50,44 %51,93 %51,93 %59,09 %61,76 %64,20 %67,39 %
Gearing ratio−2,18 %15,29 %3,23 %15,56 %−22,14 %−32,83 %−39,34 %−45,25 %

Quarter data

Q2/22Q3/22Q4/222022Q1/23Q2/23eQ3/23eQ4/23e2023e
Omsättning61,2370,5778,69263,7972,6757,0052,0055,00236,67
EBITDA9,5211,9413,6742,8012,397,037,438,5335,36
EBIT8,6510,9412,6739,0011,305,936,237,3330,77
Vinst före skatt7,869,9312,1536,6810,945,636,037,2329,82
Nettoresultat5,787,668,7227,618,374,284,585,4922,71
Publisher
Incap: Share price already attractive if the problems are temporary

Following the company's Q1 report, we made only very minor changes to our near-term earnings estimates. In the short term, there are few positive drivers for the stock, as the inventory adjustment related to the largest customer will push growth and earnings growth into a clear downward spiral, at least for the rest of the year.

Aktieanalys2023-04-27 av Antti Viljakainen
Publisher
Incap Q1'23: Hur sover Otto Pukk?

Incaps Q1:a var solid, men fokuset ligger på vinstvarningen i april. Största kunden trycker på bromsen och vill sänka egna lagernivåer. Är detta strukturell problematik, eller en kortsiktig motgång? Hur går det med lönsamheten, den frigjorda kapaciteten och den nya fabriken i Indien? Hur guidar man framöver och hur sover vd Otto Pukk om natten?

Video2023-04-26 av Isa Hudd
Publisher
Incap Q1'23: Is Pukk sleeping well?

Incap’s Q1 was solid, but focus lies on the profit warning issued in April. The biggest customer is applying the brakes and wants to lower its inventories. Is this a structural problem or a temporary setback? What will happen with profitability, the released capacity and the new factory in India? What does the future guidance look like and how is CEO Otto Pukk sleeping?

Video2023-04-26 av Isa Hudd
Publisher
Incap: The market verdict seems slightly exaggerated

Yesterday, Incap issued a profit warning for the current year after the company's largest customer decided to lower its inventory levels due to the normalization of the component situation and a slowing growth outlook. In the short term, there are few positive drivers for the stock, but we don’t see the problems associated with the largest client as structural.

Aktieanalys2023-04-19 av Antti Viljakainen
Publisher
Incap: Good outlook with risks priced in a balanced manner

We made only minor changes to our earnings estimates following the company's Q4 report. In our view, the Incap share is still not unreasonably expensive given the overall positive outlook for the company.

Aktieanalys2023-02-23 av Antti Viljakainen
Publisher
Incap Q4'22: Rekordtillväxt och förvärvsplaner

Omsättnings- och lönsamhetsmässigt levererade Incap än en gång toppsiffror för helåret 2022. På den negativa sidan ser man ett svällande lager och kassaflödesutmaningar.

Video2023-02-22 av Isa Hudd