Nokia

Tråkigare aktie får man leta efter på Helsingfors-börsen. Nokia har väl närmast levererat en lång rad besvikelser de senaste +20 åren. Under den nya(ste) ledningen verkar det dock som det börjat synas ljus i tunneln; kanske t.o.m. någon slags turn-around i sikte. Idag gjorde jag ett köp @4,35 €. Jag har inte rört denna position på flera år; senaste köpet gjort under €4. Men nu levererade Nokia ett så starkt resultat (både Q4/2022 och 2022), kombinerat med någon form av prisnedgång (YTD: -1,95% / 3m: -2,31% / 6m: -14,75% / 12m: -14,48 %) att jag helt enkelt inte kunde motstå frestelsen. Svårt att se hur Nokia skulle vara dyr just nu. 2023 prognoser ~ P/E 10x, P/B 1.1x, dividend 4.1% och EV/EBIT 6.5x. Men om aktiekursen fortsätter att falla från denna nivå, så tror jag att jag kommer att fortsätta köpa.

In the big picture Nokia’s markets are pretty stable and growing/declining in relation to telecom operators capex budgets (which are pretty stable). For mobile networks Ericsson was expecting flat market during its CMD on December. Nokia’s expectations for this decade look like this: This is a comment from Nokia’s CEO from Q1 earnings call: Market research firm Dell’Oro published their latest market forecast just a month ago and they are still expecting 1 % growth even though capex budgets are declining this year. Nokia also reiterated its outlook for 2023 and is still guiding with the guidance midpoint stable earnings for this year. All in all, in a recession it would be really hard for Nokia to grow its earnings, but I think pretty stable development is still achievable. The stock is trading currently with 2023e P/E ratio of 9x so it seems that markets are already pricing in pretty steep decline in earnings. So if Nokia is able to roughly maintain its current adj. EBIT level of +3000 MEUR, it is pretty fair to say that the stock is very cheap at the moment.

Några små kändisar har nämnt Nokia på sin Twitter-kanal. Hälsningar till Eriksson! twitter.com President Biden @POTUS Made in America is becoming a reality. Thanks to our historic investment to connect everyone to high-speed Internet by 2030, Nokia will begin manufacturing broadband electronics products in America at scale for the first time. 12:48 AM - 4 Aug 2023 16K 3.2K twitter.com Vice President Kamala Harris @VP Today, I was proud to announce that Nokia and Sanmina will expand production in Kenosha County, creating new jobs and building American-made broadband technology as @POTUS and I make historic investments to connect every home in our nation to affordable high-speed internet. 2:00 AM - 4 Aug 2023 8.1K 1.7K

Oh Nokia, oh Nokia… Man förväntade sig inte mycket av Nokias Q3-resultat, men det lyckades ändå att missa de låga förväntningarna. Inderes — Connecting Investors and Companies Nokia: Market situation forces to defensive positions Nokia's market situation has continued to deteriorate, and the company will have to make significant cost savings in the coming years to defend its profitability. With a declining earnings trend, it is difficult to see any material upside to the...

I appreciate how interestingly and comprehensibly you are able to explain these things. Thanks to you, I now have a better understanding of the whole picture. I could imagine that Nokia is really cheap. Nokia has had a tendency to surprise both downwards and upwards, so it’s definitely not a sure case. Thanks, Atte! (Of course, nothing is certain in investing.)

How will Nokia fare if the economy clearly weakens? When considering how fierce the competition is in Nokia’s fields of market. On the other hand, Huawei is facing major problems, which offers opportunities for Nokia. The company also has the “money” and possibilities, as it has technological expertise. Feel free to answer my question briefly, although it may be challenging. I’m trying to understand the big picture better. Thanks in advance for your answer! (Sorry for always asking questions. )

Analyst @Atte_Riikola and analysis about Nokia. I personally think that Nokia is somewhat inexpensive, but on the other hand, it doesn’t have very remarkable growth prospects in the near future. Inderes — Connecting Investors and Companies Nokia: Sluggish earnings growth outlook limits upside Nokia's market does not seem to offer any substantial leverage for net sales growth in the coming years, which also makes profitability improvement challenging. In our view, the lack of earnings growth also limits the upside potential of the stock's...