* We take a closer look at recent regulatory trends and tenders
* Benchmark vs. Lime: DONKEY multiples 9-24% below for '28e
* +20% revenue CAGR in '25-'28e; FVR of DKK 8.0-11.0/share
A closer look at regulatory trends & tenders
In this report, we examine recent regulatory trends shaping Europe's bike-sharing fleet, which is projected to grow at a +15% CAGR until 2030. Firstly, several cities are turning against e-scooters, and while competition for bikes could modestly intensify, DONKEY's pure-play bike fleet places the company in a sweet spot. Secondly, in Copenhagen, we do not view a likely stricter, more selective regime following Voi's return as negative, unless it ends in a hard fleet cap, as DONKEY looks well-positioned given its +10-year operating history and strong city relationships. Finally, despite PubliBike set to take over the Geneva operation from mid-'27, we continue to have strong conviction in DONKEY's ability to grow strongly; we forecast a 20% revenue CAGR in '25-'28e, which - with improving operating leverage - leads us to expect adj. EBITDA rising from DKK 30m in '25 to DKK 87m in '28e.
Lime puts a price on micromobility
We also benchmark DONKEY with Lime (IPOed this summer). We expect DONKEY to grow both its top-line and earnings faster than Lime over the coming years (albeit from a much lower base), and to achieve similar margins. This leaves DONKEY's '28e EBITDA/EBIT multiples 14%/24% below Lime. We keep our fair value range of DKK 8.0-11.0.
Q3 due on 2 November
We expect revenues of DKK 61.5m in the seasonally important Q3, for +11% growth y-o-y, driven by a 21% increase in fleet size due to Germany roll-outs, more than offsetting revenue/bike down 8% due to mix and Q3 weather-related headwinds, alongside possible pricing pressure. We forecast Q3 EBITDA of DKK 20.3m, slightly down y-o-y due to roll-out-related costs. For FY'26e, following small estimate cuts, we now expect revenues of DKK 191m (vs. guidance of DKK 184m-194m) and EBITDA of DKK 43m (guidance DKK 38m-45m).