Long overdue, Nanexa has finally signed a global, exclusive license and collaboration agreement with Novo for PharmaShell in peptide-based treatments for obesity, type 2 diabetes and other cardiometabolic diseases.
The deal is worth up to EUR 1.165bn plus a low single-digit royalty on sales. Larger than we expected, EUR 615m of the total consists of upfront, development and regulatory payments, plus EUR 550m in milestones linked to product sales. However, based on mgmt’s soft guidance, we estimate the upfront at a modest EUR 15m. The deal covers up to five programmes targeting monthly or quarterly dosing, with Novo leading global development and commercialisation.
The Moderna collaboration and other PharmaShell evaluations add further optionality, as PharmaShell outside Novo’s field remains free to license.
Our new risk-adjusted valuation arrives at about SEK 14 per share for the Novo deal, which together with Moderna and the wider PharmaShell platform adds up to about SEK 17 per share, a significant increase from our previous SEK 6 target.
But the upfront, the royalty rate and the timelines are not disclosed, so the margin of error remains considerable.