* A stable quarter with solid EBITDA
* One step back at Sainsbury's, a leap into the US
* Fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share
A stable quarter with solid EBITDA
Q2 delivered revenues of NOK 342m, -2% y-o-y (ABGSCe NOK 343m). Growth was strong in UK & Ireland (+25% y-o-y) and Spain (+35%), while the Nordics fell 22% on the ESL partner transition. GM came in at 42.7% vs. our 44%, yielding gross profit ~3% below us. EBITDA landed at NOK 5m (ABGSCe NOK 3m), but note that this includes a NOK 4m one-off, i.e adj. EBITDA was NOK 9m and the adj. margin 2.6% (vs. ABGSCe 0.9%). Clean opex was ~7% better than forecast, which we view as impressive. Disposable funds increased to NOK 98m on stronger cash flows and net debt fell to NOK 57m (NOK 91m in Q1).
One step back at Sainsbury's, a leap into the US
Order Picking performance remains mixed: Sainsbury's is rolling out slower than planned, and the two sides have agreed a temporary cut to the volume commitment, which weighs on near-term licence revenue. Against this, StrongPoint has got its first taste of the American dream with its first US Order Picking customer, marking a breakthrough into the largest Western grocery market. Focus lies on cost savings initiatives and converting signed Order Picking agreements into recurring revenue. The Pricer recurring run-off will remain a headwind through '26: the rolling 12-month ESL licence and service base will fall from NOK 52m at end-2025 to zero by end-2026, with the Vusion offset building over time.
Fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share
Q2 was a stable quarter, with flattish revenue and an EBITDA beat on lower opex. The pipeline is building - Meijer, Coop Estonia, AutoStore contracts and a new CashGuard Connect pilot in Spain. The path to sustained profitability will have ups and downs, but the overall direction is positive. Our DCF indicates an equity value of ~NOK 650m, and we see a fair value range of NOK 8-18.