This content is generated by AI based on a video transcript. You can give feedback on it in the Inderes forum.
Ansvarsfriskrivning: Detta är en maskingenererad transkription och kan innehålla felaktigheter.
Good morning. It is my pleasure to present Sanoma as an investment to you. And our story is really around growth powered by learning. And I would like to bring that to life for you today.
Let me start by saying what we've really focused on as an organization, and that is, of course, really focusing on the growth first and foremost in our K-12 business, where we serve and support about 25 million students and their teachers on a daily basis with our methods, with our digital solutions, and everything that can help to make the teachers and the students more effective in their learning. But we also are the leading digital cross-media company in Finland, and we sort of reach almost every Finn on a weekly basis. And we do that with our newspaper and our radio and TV, and of course, also the events. And that has really gone through a digital transformation over the last few years. And if you see that in numbers, it's about 1.3 billion in revenue. Last year, 188 million in adjusted operating profit and a continuously growing cash flow, which last year stood at 160 million.
And we have over the last few years really focused on three things. And I would like to highlight those to you. First and foremost, it has been around improving the profitability in both media and learning. That's in percentages, but also in absolute terms. And as a result of that, also our free cash flow significantly grew, as you can see here. And therefore our deleveraging progressed very well. And that puts us in a strong position now to focus on that growth that we see ahead of us. And that starts really with a step change already in 2026.
And we are very focused on how we want to do it. And that's what you see here. We see a great opportunity to go to high single-digit organic earnings growth for the group. And that powered by learning is also shown here because we have comparable net sales growth ahead of us of mid-single digits and adjusted operating profit growth of high single digits, which implies ongoing opportunity to improve our margins. And we really do that with that unique position as a starting point. And that is that leading K-12 learning content provider position. But we also shape the future and support shaping the future of K-12. And we do that via multiple levers, and I'll touch on them. And all that together really gives that growth.
On the learning side, we also have very strong business fundamentals, and that is on the one hand, Media Finland, which continues to go through this digital transformation, really helping us also support with the cash to invest further in that growth. And then if you look at our balance sheet, we of course have focused on that over the last few years, and we continue to do that. So really focused on having a solid balance sheet with a net debt over adjusted EBITDA of below 2.5, and also continue to have the dividend policy where we pay 40 to 60% of our annual free cash flow. And of course, with the growth of the business, we also expect that to continue to grow in the years ahead.
Let me now zoom in on that a bit more. And first of all, also highlight a key topic that I think is on everybody's minds when you think about investments. And that is AI. And we see great opportunity across our business to enhance our growth with AI, but we always do that with the human oversight firmly in place, because that's also the trust that we have with our customers, both in learning and media. What that means in learning, and I'll give you some practical examples later on, but what that really means is that we will see increasingly personalized learning solutions. So helping the teacher and students more and more in a personalized individual way. And that's new offerings and enhanced learning outcomes. That's really a great opportunity there.
In media, we also see a lot of opportunity and we're rolling that out as we speak for smarter, more intuitive, more interactive, and again, more personalized products. On top of that, we see across our business a lot of opportunity for further efficiencies. When you think about productivity, faster development cycles, both on the development of products, but also improved workflows across the business, not in the least. Of course, when you think about content creation in both media and learning. So a lot of opportunity there as well to really unlock value with AI.
Let me now zoom in on K-12 and our learning business a bit more. And I think it's good to remember that it is a very large, about 5 billion, and very attractive market. And the attractiveness, from our perspective, is really focused on the fact that teachers change materials only every 3 to 8 years. So it's a really sticky market. And we, of course, are in a leading position, as you can see here as well, across Europe in the markets we're active. So also education is very much supported. Public spending over the years has been increasing. And expectations are that that will continue to be the case. And education throughout the cycles economically has always been a priority for all governments. And we see that continuing, and there are really high barriers to entry. You really need to know the details of the curriculum, changes, of the local country-specific education system. And we, of course, have the knowledge and the expertise over many years to play our role in that. So that is really a large and attractive market.
And we have a very focused view on how we will create value and grow. And that's around three levers that you can see here. On the one hand, there is the capturing of the curriculum renewal cycle. So really benefiting from the fact that we have that leading position in these markets. And when the curriculum changes, we of course have the opportunity to bring new products, new solutions to market. But we're also shaping the market. And as I mentioned, increasingly towards personalized learning. And that's, of course, an evolving K-12 market where ultimately the aim is to improve the learning outcomes. The third element is around scaling our opportunity, and that is benefiting from the scale we have created and also continuing with our value-creating acquisitions. And I'll touch on the different elements of that in a second.
First of all, on the curriculum renewal cycles, we of course operate in a lot of different markets. And the benefit of that is that although there are fluctuations across the markets, underlying, if you look at the years ahead, we have real growth supported by these curriculum changes. And that's, of course, hard work. When you think about really delivering to the market blended learning materials that are high quality and that we really develop in partnership with the schools and with the teachers, and the blended methods really support the learning outcomes and also help save the teachers time and support. Also student motivation. Just to keep in mind, from a financial point of view, this was more than 80% of our net sales in 2025. So this really goes to the heart of our business and underlying growth.
But on top of that, we of course see an opportunity and we also are helping to shape the future of K-12 education. And there's a lot happening there. But fundamentally, we of course see that schools and classrooms are really the anchor in every system across Europe. The teachers are really in control. The teachers really want to leverage those blended materials, and they do that in a challenging environment. The learning outcomes are under pressure across the markets. There's a real shortage of teachers. And if you were to step into a classroom in Europe, you see more and more complex and diverse classroom dynamics, i.e. more diverse needs of the children. So that's also where it gets really exciting. If you think about the support of AI, that is, of course, helping with more personalized support for the students in the classroom. And we do that also via the teacher. And then on top of that, increasingly, we also see the opportunity that we can help parents and students outside of the classroom to further develop and improve their learning outcomes. So that is the focus. We have a real societal need. And also our role in that is an exciting one.
Let me now zoom in on what that also then means. If you think about it practically from a school teacher perspective or student-parent perspective. So at the heart is, of course, that solid base that I mentioned on our methods that really enables the teacher to develop the content that they need in the day-to-day classroom. And we, of course, have fully developed methods that they can use as the basis there. And as I mentioned, we do that in long-term partnerships. So this really is the teacher using in the day-to-day work to get the students to the next level.
Besides that, there is the growth now towards the students directly. And we see that already in markets like Poland developing very, very well. And we expect that across Europe to grow. And that market, as a reminder, is, of course, a very big one and was traditionally more on tutoring. And we think now with our content, with our personalized learning solutions, there's an additional growth opportunity there. The end result is more effective teaching, teachers that really save time. And remember, there are not enough of them. So that really helps them, but it also helps with student engagement, more motivated students. And as a parent, it really gives them support in how they can help their children in the learning. So overall, that is that positive impact on society that we try to have.
Let me now talk a little bit about the scaling of our opportunity, because we see three ways to do that. And of course, keeping in mind that we have deleveraged as well over the last few years, we are in a strong position and have significant headroom to do further acquisitions, but they are focused. So they either are entering into new geographies within Europe on the K-12, like we have done in the past with Spain and Italy, but they can also be enhancing our position in current markets. And we did that this year in Spain with Visa and Viva's, a really good publisher, high-quality publisher that we added to our already existing scale in Spain and therefore creating a lot of synergies and shareholder value. And increasingly, you will see us also adding solutions that support that more personalized learning approach. And we did that this year with an acquisition in the Netherlands. And we also did that with an acquisition in Poland. And they both were more towards that personalized learning. But it's always with K-12 focus, improving our market-leading position across Europe and really supporting our net sales and earnings targets, and therefore also that return for the shareholders in the way of dividend as well. And we always keep an eye on the fact that it needs to have high barriers to entry.
Let me now say a few words on the media side, where we have seen a really successful digital transformation over the last few years, and our focus is to continue to do that. But also, of course, we see significant growth coming from the legalizing by the government of the gambling market. So the opening up, so to speak, of the gambling market. But that digital transformation, we already have come a long way and you can see that reflected here. So 75% of our new subscriptions are digitally active. 50% of all subscriptions are digital only. And as you, of course, heard earlier, we do really reach almost all Finns on a weekly basis. So it's a great position to have. And a lot of the traffic to our website is also direct, so people go directly to us. So we continue on that path. On digital growth for our audiences and also with new products. But we also see a lot of productivity opportunity there as well.
The gambling market is also opening and that we expect has a significant positive impact on the advertising market across Finland. And let me highlight that a little bit further. So we've always been supporting the current incumbent on the gambling market, viscose, with their branding advertising. And in essence we will continue to do so. But now for more players in the market. So that is what is, of course, driving part of the growth. And this will also in general increase. We expect the pricing in the market as well. So overall we estimate that to be an impact of about 20 million of additional sales for us starting from mid-27. So this is an annualized number and it starts from mid-27. And how that exactly will play out is always difficult to predict. But this is significant growth. And also keeping in mind that the margin contribution for advertising for us is high. So this is expected to have significant impact on the profit on the media side.
Let me say a few words also on the dividend. That is a very key focus for us. That is a way of showing the key shareholder return. And of course, with the growth of our business and the step change as well in 26, we expect this to continue to grow in the years to come. And that's based on the policy that's unchanged, which is an increasing dividend equal to 40 to 60% of our annual free cash flow.
Let me now bring it back to the here and now of today and this year, 2026. As I mentioned, it's a real step change in growth on the profit side for us. We reconfirmed that, of course, at the half-year point. And we are now in the core part of the year for learning. This is, of course, start of the school year everywhere in Europe, and we are well on track. But that's also why we did not change it at the half-year point. This is a crucial quarter for us and on media, of course, a lot of the advertising revenue still comes in in the second half, but we're well positioned to deliver on that step change in growth.
So let me round off by highlighting again the key elements of our investor story. It's, of course, around that positive impact for the lives of millions of people every day, starting with that key position in K-12 with lots of growth opportunities organically. And then on top of that, strong business fundamentals, including the media business that goes through a successful digital transformation. And that overall gives us also a lot of room to do further scaling of our business, also via acquisitions. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Rob. Welcome to the couch. Thank you. Can I ask a topical question to begin with. The OECD Pisa results came yesterday and they're not looking great for many countries in Europe. Finland, I think, went down again. Is this an opportunity or a problem for Sanoma? Should we be worried about your learning materials not being good enough if this is the case?
I think there's a few things to say, but overall, I think it's a real opportunity to support the teachers and the schools in Europe and the governments to improve on it. Right. And I think it's also fair to say that a lot of hard work goes into this, and it's a very complex problem for all governments and all schools and teachers. But there's a lot of passion, and there's also a lot of good things happening now that maybe not yet can be reflected in those results and our methods and our approach. And increasingly, what you say around personalized learning can really help that further. So we're really there to support the teachers and the governments to get to the better learning outcomes that everybody wants and that we need.
Okay. And now, just a quick reminder to everybody who's watching. You can submit questions for our guests. And we already received several ones. And I picked one for you. Please do. Meta and Alphabet are growing in advertising businesses. What kind of threat are Meta and Google to Sanoma?
Yes, of course. I mean, it is a very competitive landscape if you think about the advertising market. It's good to keep in mind that, of course, for us overall, it is an increasingly smaller part because, of course, our growth is on the subscriptions in media. But more broadly, of course, the growth on the learning side is what really drives our numbers and our profit. We do everything we can to defend our position and improve on it further. But of course, it is a challenging advertising market overall.
I'll pick another. On a scale from 1 to 5, how frustrating is it to repeatedly address questions about whether Sanoma should split its learning and media businesses?
It's just a fact of life. The answer is always the same.
1 to 5.
1 to 5. It's not frustrating. No. Okay. No, 1.
That's great.
Um. Do you think that there is any chance that it would one day split? I mean, I think from my understanding, or I think the sentiment is that it's very much related to the fact that Sanoma has such large shareholders that have an incentive to kind of, for social reasons, to keep the media business. Has that been something that's hard to adapt to when you come to a Finnish company that you kind of have these very recognizable owners that really hold on to the media?
No, on the contrary, I think this is a great position to be in. This is my eighth year at Sanoma and I really thoroughly enjoy also the support from those key shareholders on the whole story that we do. And I think from a management point of view, I'm very excited about both learning and media and, of course, also the transformation successfully that we do. And on a slightly broader point on society, I think the fact that we can do our bit to protect independent, high-quality journalism in Finland is very, very important. And for that, being successful, both in learning as well as in the digital transformation in media is really, really good. And I feel very supported by the shareholders for that.
Maybe as you've underlined and as we know, the growth is coming from the learning side and the market is looking pretty good at the moment due to the renewal cycles of the curriculums in many of your markets. Is that something that is giving you a boost in the short term or for a couple of years? Or do you see that there is more structural kind of impact to be seen.
Yeah, I think I see structural opportunities here. So the curriculum, of course, per market always goes a bit up and down. But because of the scale we now have, we see underlying and ongoing growth. But on top of that, of course, increasingly other solutions that we bring to market that will boost that growth further. So the combination is not just one of growth, it's ongoing growth.
A couple of questions from our audience. What are the main competitors to you. Sorry.
Yes. Well, in the learning part, I guess it's meant, right. So mostly players that are local in the market. So normally we compete with a few key players in the market. There are two markets that are really an exception. That is Spain and Italy, where it's very fragmented. And this is also why you hear me say that there's a lot of opportunity for further consolidating.
Okay. So there should be more acquisitions.
That's definitely a focus of us, but only if it is value creation. So that is, of course, for the right price.
Do you see that there are actually good targets perhaps at the moment, or are there maybe larger acquisitions that you would be willing to make?
Well, we never comment on the acquisition pipeline, but in general, I think it is good to realize that where we see great opportunities for further scaling, you also need that scale to do those personalized learning solutions that we talk about. And I think that's the realization that I see in the market. Hence also why you have seen us more active also this year in the acquisition.
Would it be in the markets that you're already active in, or do you see that there are new markets that you could maybe expand to? Well, we will always look.
For can we step into a market within Europe that is K-12 focused, where actually we can play a role and add to our scale? So that's one. But then the, let's say, benefiting from our scale is then the second one, which would be in the markets like we did this year in Spain. And then increasingly, when we can add capabilities and solutions on that more personalized learning like we've done with two this year, we will continue to do that as well.
Maybe still on the topic of the curriculum renewals, this is something that is obviously very related to politics, and there is a lot of fiscal pressure on many European countries and their budgets, maybe educational cuts. Do you see this as a problem for Sanoma? Are there opportunities? How are you adapting to this?
Well, of course I don't have a crystal ball for the future. But if you look at the track record of pretty much all the governments that we are active in the countries, then there has been ongoing support over decades for education. There's the realization, I think now more than ever, that education is really, really important, foundational education for society. So I don't see any indications that there is that kind of discussion with education. And also, it's good to keep in mind the market we are active in is something like a couple of percentages of total education spend. So it's also not, in the bigger picture, a point of, oh, that's where money needs to come from, for example, to invest in defense.
One audience question. What are the most lucrative markets for learning?
I think for us overall, it is markets where there is a real opportunity to help with our methods and improve. So for us, the bigger markets, of course, in Europe that we're active in like Poland, Spain and Italy, but also markets that really are leading the way on the sort of blended learning approach. And that's a market like the Netherlands as well. Okay.
Maybe, I mean, the topic that we can't evade ever, and which came up in your presentation as well, would be AI, how is generative AI specifically transforming your learning business? Where are you using it? Well, we are already.
Using it internally, of course, in all the areas that we can, but always with human oversight, but that's around the content production, that is around doing that more efficiently. It helps, of course, with getting even better connection between curriculum and content. AI can help with that. And then, of course, towards the students and the teachers and the schools. It very much is around the personalized learning. So if you step into a classroom, you probably have seen many times that children are, let's say, around a certain table doing a certain level work. There's so much more you can now do with personalized learning, but it has to be with human oversight. The teacher needs to stay in control, and that's what we support in general.
Maybe a more philosophical question. What are your thoughts on children being more exposed to AI-generated content? Do you think that educators and maybe educational material producers have a certain responsibility in sort of keeping them in touch with also human-created content or human creativity and so on?
Yeah, I think that's a huge responsibility for all of us and also for us. And of course, we really also try to support the teachers that are trying to get this right day by day. And I think it's a big difference. Of course, if you are a six-year-old teaching six-year-olds on the fundamentals of maths and language, etc., then I think it's very much the teacher can use it to do more personalized, but the idea of having too much AI in the classroom seems not correct to me. Right. But it's ultimately about the teachers who decide that.
One AI question. Shall we see more articles and content made with AI in Sanoma. But always with human oversight?
So yes, AI can help the journalist and also the content more broadly with that. And, you know, it can support being more efficient and therefore more time for the real, let's say, more added value that a journalist can provide. But it's always with human oversight. We are ultimately responsible.
Do you see that AI has already provided efficiency in the media side of Sanoma?
Yeah, both in media and in learning. We see it. It's early days. And of course, we are also learning constantly on this, but I see very enthusiasm on trying to get it right, because we know if we get that more efficient, we also have more time for more added value on the journalistic side.
Maybe moving on to the media business, obviously the big topic is the gambling market opening up next year, and this is something that the Finnish media companies have definitely lobbied for. It's expected to bring new ad revenue. How has Sanoma been preparing for this? Have you made investments into sports content?
We've made a few investments, but it's relatively limited. I think we mentioned also in our quarterly results. It's for this year, maybe an order of magnitude of a couple of million. So there's a bit, but it's not significant. And I think to your point on lobbying for it or not, no, for us, it's more this is a government decision to open it up. It has happened across Europe. And we will try to do, of course, in a responsible way, to deal with the fact that that means there are more players coming into it, which of course leads to advertising opportunities.
How much of a battle is it going to be in terms of kind of getting the ad revenue and not going to the kind of global platform companies?
That battle is absolutely there. And of course, it's also good to realize that a lot of that transition to these global players has happened. So we're now also in a very different position, and we are here to fight to also keep our own share of this, which I think is also in the interest of everybody. Mhm.
Do you think there is a certain irony in simultaneously kind of shaping the minds of young people and then being sort of excited about getting money from gambling websites?
Yeah, I think it is it. I mean, let's face it, this is always a tricky point, right? But from my perspective, I wouldn't call myself excited about it. I think we're also observing that this is happening. And that's also why we have made it very clear we are not stepping into that gambling space at all. But of course there are companies that are allowed to do it that also want to do their branding, and that is the effect it will have on us, which we need to also be open and transparent about. That is what we expect to happen.
Maybe in terms of your earnings growth, how much of it is actually coming from the growth side and how much is coming from the efficiency programs that you've been doing?
It's both. Of course it's important. And you've seen that in learning with our improving margins and in media, of course, as well. But overall, the longer-term growth is top-line growth that we see as well. So the top-line growth will increasingly drive our profitability growth as well. And therefore our cash and therefore also the dividend. Mhm.
One interesting question from here. Are there some limitations in regulation how Sanoma can add AI on learning services.
Yes, there are loads of, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, for the right reasons, right. This is ultimately about children. So privacy, data protection and also really thinking through. And that's a much broader topic than we have time for. But really thinking through what does personalized learning mean? How can you support it and how can you also protect the child? But coming back to your point on, you know, it is a really big responsibility to do this in the right way. There's lots of regulation, and I think for the right reasons. Yeah.
Maybe out of interest. You've now been at Sanoma. Well, you've been at Sanoma for a long time, but you've been CEO for almost three years now. And to my understanding, you've moved here a while ago to Finland. What is your, I mean, there's a lot of discussion in Finland about our attractiveness as an investment place for investment, and also our attractiveness to international talent. How do you see that? What's your kind of experience been?
Well, I think we can still do a lot more from a Finnish perspective to tell the story better, but this is a fantastic country to live and work, so I'm a big advocate of it, including I can see myself retire here over time as well. A fantastic country, language is of course a challenge, but let's face it, increasingly that is less and less of a barrier, so to speak. So yeah, very, very positive about it.
If you had to pitch Finland to a Dutch CEO in one sentence, what would you say?
Well, it's an exciting market. It's a very friendly and positive environment to live and work in. And it's a great country.
Do we have time for one more maybe question.
Okay, what makes a better investment than competitors?
I think there's a real exciting growth story here that I highlighted earlier in, you know, like I say, markets that are really making a bit of a difference in society. So I think it also links nicely to that sustainability point. But at the end of the day, I think it will give great returns as well.
Great. Thank you very much, Rob. Thank you.
Rob Kolkman, CEO, talks about Sanoma as an Investment.