Sell in May and go away? Not for Inderes
Sammanfattning
- Inderes' May revenue increased by 14% year-over-year to 1.9 MEUR, surpassing the 1.7 MEUR estimate by 12%, driven by recurring revenue and project timing.
- The Finnish IPO market is recovering, with companies like Savox, KPY, and Reaktor planning listings, aligning with previous expectations.
- Evli's exit from the research business strengthens Inderes' market position, as most of Evli's clients have transitioned to Inderes.
- We maintain our long-term estimates and target price at 20 EUR, reiterating a buy recommendation, with Inderes' H1 results expected on 11.08.
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Inderes' May revenue grew 14% YoY to 1,9 MEUR, exceeding our 1,7 MEUR estimate by 12%. According to management, growth was driven mainly by recurring revenue (research and software) with additional support from timings of project revenue.
| May 2024 | ∆% | May 2025 | ∆% | May 2026 | ∆% | FY26 Old | FY26 New |
| 1,9 MEUR | 15 % | 1,6 MEUR | -12 % | 1,9 MEUR | 14 % | 20,7 MEUR | 20,8 MEUR |
Recent momentum has been strong, and the competitive landscape is shifting in Inderes' favor.
The Finnish IPO pipeline is showing clear signs of recovery, which is consistent with our earlier expectations. For example: Savox, KPY and Reaktor have all announced listing intentions.
Evli's announced exit from the research business eliminates one credible domestic competitor, further consolidating Inderes' market position. It should be noted that almost all Evli’s research clients have already been commissioned by Inderes. In our view the exit happens in a good spot for Inderes, which will have easier time converting new listing to research clients in Finland.
We revise our Q2 revenue estimate to EUR 5,7 million and raise our full-year 2026 forecast to 20,8 (20,7) MEUR mainly driven by continued momentum in Inderes' domestic commissioned research business.
| Million Euros | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026e | Q3 2026e | Q4 2026e |
| Revenue | 5,3 | 5,2 | 3,9 | 4,7 | 5,5 | 5,7 | 4,4 | 5,2 |
| Other operating income | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,1 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 |
| Materials and services | -1,1 | -1,0 | -0,6 | -0,8 | -1,1 | -1,1 | -0,6 | -0,9 |
| Personnel expenses | -2,9 | -2,9 | -1,9 | -2,8 | -3,0 | -3,0 | -2,0 | -2,9 |
| Other operating expenses | -0,8 | -1,2 | -0,7 | -0,8 | -0,8 | -0,8 | -0,7 | -0,7 |
| EBITDA | 0,5 | 0,2 | 0,8 | 0,4 | 0,6 | 0,6 | 1,0 | 0,5 |
| Depreciation and amortization | -0,1 | -0,1 | -0,1 | -0,1 | -0,1 | -0,1 | -0,1 | -0,1 |
| EBITA | 0,5 | 0,1 | 0,7 | 0,3 | 0,5 | 0,5 | 0,9 | 0,5 |
| Amortization of consolidated goodwill | -0,2 | -0,2 | -0,2 | -0,2 | -0,2 | -0,2 | -0,2 | -0,2 |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | 0,3 | 0,0 | 0,5 | 0,1 | 0,3 | 0,3 | 0,8 | 0,3 |
We keep our long-term estimates and target price unchanged 20€. We also re-issue our buy recommendation.
Inderes will publish its H1 results on 11.08. We will release our preview of H1 a few weeks prior.