Remedy Entertainment

We have updated our estimates to include the reboot of the Vanguard project under the codename Kestrel. As a result, cash flows from Remedy’s projects will focus slightly more at the end of this decade.

On Monday, Remedy announced that it is relaunching its free-to-play collaborative multiplayer project previously known as Vanguard, with Tencent as its publishing partner. Going forward, the project will be codenamed "Kestrel" and will be made into a premium game with a strong co-op multiplayer component.

Remedy's Q3 report did not yet provide any information on preliminary sales figures for Alan Wake 2. However, the game's excellent reception by critics and players alike creates a strong foundation for good sales success and also strengthens Remedy's long-term prospects in many ways.

The critic reviews for Alan Wake 2 released on Thursday were very positive and suggest AW2 is shaping up to be Remedy's best game yet. High review scores will almost certainly boost sales of a game right from the get-go, and a very high quality product is likely to sell well for many years after release. We have raised our expectations for AW2's royalties and as a result we expect the company to deliver a strong result as early as next year. A quality game release strengthens Remedy's long-term prospects in many ways, while the positive momentum around AW2 also creates a clear short-term driver for the stock.

​Remedy will report its Q3 results on Tuesday October 31, at 9.00 am EEST. Alan Wake 2 will be released on October 27, so we'll see the first critic reviews and initial player reception just a few days before the Q3 report.

We looked at the current valuation levels of listed gaming companies and their growth and profitability forecasts for the coming years. The companies are divided into three groups: 1) Mobile games companies, 2) Console and PC games companies, and 3) Multi-platform games companies, a group of gaming giants. We also briefly review interesting companies in the sector.

With the release of Alan Wake 2 on October 27, Remedy's investor story is gradually moving into a phase of profitable growth after years of strong investment. In our view, the valuation of the stock already prices Alan Wake 2 for good success, and the other projects in the pipeline are also expected to create value.

Alan Wake 2 has a new release date of Friday, October 27. The move is due to the busy October release window, which will see a number of big games.

In our view, Remedy's share valuation is already pricing in good success for Alan Wake 2, due for release on October 17, 2023, and other projects in the pipeline are also expected to create value. We are particularly confident in the success of the traditional AAA game projects under development, whereas the multiplayer projects Condor and especially Vanguard are the biggest question marks at this point.

Remedy will report its Q2 results on Friday at 9.00 am. This year, Remedy is still clearly in an investment phase as the company builds its strategy for the next growth leap with 5 major gaming projects under development. Thus, in light of the figures, the Q2 report will be weak and the progress of game projects in the pipeline will be the most relevant thing at this point. The release of Alan Wake 2 on October 17 will obviously be the key event of the year and also a key near-term driver for the stock.