Inderes Q3'26 -preview: Equity story intact
Sammanfattning
- Inderes anticipates strong Q3 momentum, with revenue growth of 12% year-on-year in July and August, driven by recurring software revenue and research growth.
- Q3 2025 revenue was 3.9 MEUR, a 7% decline due to project revenue drops, setting a low comparison base for Q3 2026.
- Inderes' client base expanded with Cityvarasto, covering all Finnish listed companies from 2025, despite Alisa Pankki's coverage ending.
- CFO Mikko Wartiovaara will leave at year-end, with Krista Monto as interim CFO from 1 January 2027; the transition is seen as routine career progression.
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| Key Metrics | Q3/2025 | Q3/2026e | Change | FY2025 | FY2026e | FY-Change | |
| Revenue, MEUR | 3,9 | 4,4 | +0,5 | 19,1 | 20,9 | +1,8 | |
| Revenue growth (YoY), % | -7 % | 11,7 % | +18,7 pp | 3,9 % | 9,2 % | +5,3 pp | |
| EBITA, MEUR | 0,7 | 0,9 | +0,2 | 2,2* | 2,6 | +0,4 | |
| EBITA % | 18,4 % | 20,3 % | +1,9 pp | 11,4 %* | 12,4 % | +1,0 pp |
Source: Inderes
*Adjusted for non-recurring items
Momentum carries into Q3
Inderes enters Q3 with strong momentum, with revenue growing 12 % year-on-year in both July and August. The key drivers have been strong growth in recurring software revenue and steady continued growth in research, with management pointing to signs of recovery in the Finnish IPO market.
This is partly explained by a relatively easy comparison period. Q3 2025 revenue fell 7 % to 3,9 MEUR as project revenue dropped 28 %, mainly caused by larger productions moving from the third quarter into the fourth. That quarter was followed by a negative profit warning in October 2025, so the bar this year is low on the project side. The client base has continued to develop positively during the quarter. Alisa Pankki’s coverage ended, but Cityvarasto was added, which means that every company listed in Finland in 2025 is now an Inderes research client.
Inderes announced on 20 October that CFO Mikko Wartiovaara will move to Suomen Teollisuussijoitus Oy as its CFO and will leave the company at the end of the year. A change of CFO is one of the more traditional warning signs for an investor, but we see nothing contentious behind this one and read it as ordinary career progression. The company itself pointed out how stable the CFO function is and how much Wartiovaara has moved Inderes forward. Krista Monto takes over as interim CFO on 1 January 2027.
Our estimates for the third quarter are left unchanged, as the reported July and August figures have developed broadly in line with our expectations. We stay at BUY with a target price of 19,90 €.