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H&M

157,85 SEK −1,44%
3 713 investerare följer bolaget.

Hennes & Mauritz är en detaljhandelskedja. Utbudet består av kläder, skor och accessoarer. Inom koncernen återfinns även varumärkena COS, Monki, Weekday, Cheap Monday samt Other Stories. Idag driver bolaget även affärsverksamhet inom heminredning under märket H&M Home. Verksamhet innehas inom samtliga globala regioner. Bolaget grundades ursprungligen 1947 och har sitt huvudkontor i Stockholm.

P/E (just.) (24e)
20
EV/EBIT (adj.) (24e)
16,51
P/B (24e)
5,13
Direktavkastnings- % (24e)
4,43 %
Riktkurs
170.00 SEK
Rekommendation
Minska
Uppdaterad
29.8.2024
NASDAQ Stockholm
HM B
Dagens lägsta / högsta pris
157 / 160,15 SEK
Börsvärde
254,22 md SEK
Omsatt (värde)
427,35 mn SEK
Omsatt (antal)
2,7 mn
Business risk
Valuation risk
Current
Previous

Senaste analyserna

H&M: We believe Q3 has been tough
2024-08-29
H&M Q2'24: Strong Q2, but more margin pressure in H2
2024-06-28
Gross margin improved faster than expected
2024-03-28

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Analytiker

Rauli Juva
Rauli Juva
Analytiker

Senast publicerade videor

H&M: We believe Q3 has been tough
2024-09-03
Hennes&Mauritz: Profitability turn around on the way
2023-10-11

Finansiell kalender

Delårsrapport
2024-09-26
Halvårsvis utdelning
2024-11-07
Årsredovisning
2025-01-30
Delårsrapport
2025-03-27

Största ägare
Källa: Millistream Market Data AB

ÄgareKapitalRöster
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Lottie Tham5,5 %2,6 %
State Street Bank And Trust Co, W92,9 %1,4 %
AMF - Försäkring och Fonder2,2 %1,1 %
JPM CHASE NA1,6 %0,8 %
Swedbank Robur fonder1,4 %0,7 %
Fjärde AP-fonden1,3 %0,6 %
Handelsbanken Fonder1,3 %0,6 %
Avanza Fonder0,8 %0,4 %

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H&M Q2 out this morning. Q2 figures were clearly above our estimates with 3 % growth and a sharp increase in gross margin, however, they were well in line with the consensus. For June, company sees a 6 % decline in sales, which is obviously weak, and which the company attributes to tough comparisons and weather effects. Company reiterated its goal to reach 10 % EBIT margin this year, but added that it has become more challenging due to “external factors” ie. input costs, have become more negative in H2 than previously believed. It’s not a surprise that 10 % will not be reached this year as we have been around 8,5 % and consensus around 9 %, but comments regarding the future still look to be on the negative side in our view, even if we need to hike our 2024 estimates due to better than expected Q2. We also note that opex/sales ratio is not coming down much despite full effect of the restructuring efforts, leaving the improvement to be driven only by gross margin. We believe some of the gross margin strenght might be used to lower prices and hence drive sales going forward.
Rauli Juva
2024-06-27 06:23💙 4
Yes, these external factors are typically things impacting the whole industry and it has been there for a few quarters already. For this year the outlook is still supportive in this respect, but one should also bear in mind the pricing component, where H&M has said prices will go down during this year, which obviously mitigates the margin support from lower costs.
Rauli Juva
2024-04-03 08:10💙 4
Quick comment on H&M’s Q1 result this morning Inderes H&M Q1: Ahead of expectations thanks to strong gross margin - Inderes H&M reported its Q1'24 (Dec-Feb) results on this morning. Sales declined largely as expected, but earnings surprised positively thanks to stronger than expected gross margin improvement. Sales have developed positively in March, which is slightly...
Rauli Juva
2024-03-27 07:57💙 4
Sammanfattning på nuläget i videoformat:
Isa Hudd
2024-09-04 11:17💙 3
Vi tror att efterfrågan på HM har förblivit trög under Q3, samtidigt som företaget står inför flera motvindar vad gäller bruttomarginalen. Vi förväntar oss att detta kommer att resultera i ett svagare andra halvår än vi tidigare förväntat oss. Inderes H&M: We believe Q3 has been tough - Inderes We believe H&M’s demand has remained sluggish in Q3, while the company faces several headwinds on the gross margin. We expect these to result in H2 being weaker than we previously expected and have hence lowered our estimates for 2024-25.
Jesper Hagman
2024-08-29 06:52💙 3
Is this a trend in the whole industry atm? Have competitors reported about a similar phenomenon? I could, of course, do my own research, but I think you might have a better view on this.
Teemu Hinkula
2024-04-03 08:02💙 3
Sure. H&M uses this to refer to a wide range of factors that impact the gross margin (or cost of goods sold), which include eg. logistics costs, the cost of the actual product for H&M (which are outsourced) and impact of currencies to profitability (mostly USD as goods are purchased in USD). The product cost in turn is impacted by eg. labour cost, price of cotton (and other raw materials to a smaller extent). Recently these costs have been going down and hence the “external factors” are positive compared to last year as H&M is commenting. Then there’s also “internal factors” (although H&M doesn use this term), which mostly means pricing. Here H&M typically gives comments regarding the impact of markdowns to the gross margin, but obviously also the list prices evolve continuously, typically following the development of “external factors” as H&M wants to keep prices competitive.
Rauli Juva
2024-04-03 07:20💙 3

Resultaträkning

20202021202220232024e2025e2026e2027e
Omsättning187 031,0198 967,0223 553,0236 035,0236 974,0247 391,0260 889,0273 584,0
tillväxt-%−19,6 %6,4 %12,4 %5,6 %0,4 %4,4 %5,5 %4,9 %
EBITDA29 052,037 575,029 748,037 492,040 398,845 103,747 584,248 967,3
EBIT (adj.)3 099,015 255,09 760,013 538,018 694,822 387,824 816,225 987,4
EBIT3 099,015 255,07 169,014 537,018 495,822 387,824 816,225 987,4
Vinst före skatt2 052,014 300,06 216,013 010,016 694,820 887,823 616,225 487,4
Nettoresultat1 243,011 010,03 566,08 723,012 511,615 770,317 830,219 243,0
EPS (adj.)0,756,653,744,737,899,7911,0711,95
tillväxt-%−90,8 %785,8 %−43,8 %26,4 %66,9 %24,1 %13,1 %7,9 %
Utdelning0,006,506,506,507,007,508,5011,95
Utdelningskvot97,7 %299,8 %120,9 %90,1 %76,6 %76,8 %100,0 %

Lönsamhet och avkastning på kapital

20202021202220232024e2025e2026e2027e
EBITDA-%15,5 %18,9 %13,3 %15,9 %17,0 %18,2 %18,2 %17,9 %
EBIT-%1,7 %7,7 %4,4 %5,7 %7,9 %9,0 %9,5 %9,5 %
EBIT-%1,7 %7,7 %3,2 %6,2 %7,8 %9,0 %9,5 %9,5 %
ROE2,2 %19,2 %6,4 %17,7 %25,8 %30,4 %31,3 %30,7 %
ROI3,0 %11,7 %5,7 %11,7 %14,7 %17,7 %19,6 %20,2 %

Värdering

20202021202220232024e2025e2026e2027e
Pris per aktie (SEK)172,00178,80112,20177,56157,85157,85157,85157,85
Aktier1 655,11 655,11 645,01 622,01 610,51 610,51 610,51 610,5
Börsvärde284 672,0295 926,5184 569,0288 002,3254 217,4254 217,4254 217,4254 217,4
Rörelsevärde348 197,0335 146,5235 497,0339 574,3308 737,3307 930,8306 968,6306 640,8
EV/S1,91,71,11,41,31,21,21,1
EV/EBITDA12,08,97,99,17,66,86,56,3
EV/EBIT (adj.)112,422,024,125,116,513,812,411,8
EV/EBIT112,422,032,823,416,713,812,411,8
P/E (just.)229,026,930,037,620,016,114,313,2
P/E229,026,951,833,320,316,114,313,2
P/B5,24,93,66,15,14,74,23,9
P/S1,51,50,81,21,11,01,00,9
Direktavkastning3,6 %5,8 %3,7 %4,4 %4,8 %5,4 %7,6 %
Soliditet31,3 %33,4 %27,9 %26,3 %27,8 %29,8 %33,1 %34,8 %
Skuldsättning116,3 %65,3 %100,3 %108,3 %110,0 %99,3 %88,2 %80,2 %

Kvartalsuppgifter

Q3/23Q4/232023Q1/24Q2/24Q3/24eQ4/24e2024eQ1/25e
Omsättning60 897,062 650,0236 035,053 669,059 605,059 900,063 800,0236 974,0
EBITDA10 466,010 562,037 492,07 480,012 598,09 568,810 752,040 398,8
EBIT4 739,04 332,014 537,02 077,07 098,04 068,85 252,018 495,8
Vinst före skatt4 373,03 916,013 010,01 606,06 668,03 618,84 802,016 694,8
Nettoresultat3 319,01 576,08 723,01 201,04 995,02 714,13 601,512 511,6
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H&M: We believe Q3 has been tough
Video av
Mikael Maijala, Rauli Juva

H&M: We believe Q3 has been tough

We believe H&M’s demand has remained sluggish in Q3, while the company faces several headwinds on the gross margin. H2 is set out to be softer than we previously expected, and we lower our estimates for 2024-2025. Analyst Rauli Juva summarizes.

H&M
H&M: We believe Q3 has been tough
Aktieanalys av
Rauli Juva

H&M: We believe Q3 has been tough

We believe H&M’s demand has remained sluggish in Q3, while the company faces several headwinds on the gross margin. We expect these to result in H2 being weaker than we previously expected and have hence lowered our estimates for 2024-25.

H&M
H&M Q2'24: Strong Q2, but more margin pressure in H2
Aktieanalys av
Rauli Juva

H&M Q2'24: Strong Q2, but more margin pressure in H2

H&M’s Q2 was strong as sales grew and EBIT improved y/y and topped our forecasts, although they were in line with the consensus. H&M, however, sees more headwinds in H2 than previously and hence its EBIT margin target of 10% looks more challenging for this year, according to the company.

H&M

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Analytikerkommentar av
Rauli Juva

H&M Q2’24 earnings preview: Positive margin trend set to continue

H&M will report its Q2’24 (March-May) results on Thursday at 8:00 am CET. We expect revenue to be flattish in local currencies, but EBIT to improve clearly, supported by both gross margin improvement and lower opex. The company has said its targeting 10% EBIT margin in 2024, which looks optimistic to us as we expect only 7.9%, while the consensus is at 8.9%.

H&M
Gross margin improved faster than expected
Aktieanalys av
Rauli Juva

Gross margin improved faster than expected

H&M's first-quarter results were better than expected, mainly due to a higher gross margin. The revenue trend also seems to be turning positive again, which we find encouraging.

H&M
H&M Q1: Ahead of expectations thanks to strong gross margin
Analytikerkommentar av
Rauli Juva

H&M Q1: Ahead of expectations thanks to strong gross margin

H&M reported its Q1'24 (Dec-Feb) results on this morning. Sales declined largely as expected, but earnings surprised positively thanks to stronger than expected gross margin improvement. Sales have developed positively in March, which is slightly better than our forecast.

H&M